"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Monday, November 1, 2010

Predictions Are Merging... and the SuperWave is Coming!

Yesterday I predicted a Republican pickup in the House of 77 seats.   Today Jim Geraghty of National Review predicts a pickup of 70 seats.   Jay Cost of The Weekly Standard says the pickup will be 76 seats.  And the Real Clear Politics average pickup is now 67 seats.    In gambling parlance they would say that the line is now being set for an over/under bet at 70-75 seats.  I want to bet the under, because I think wisdom says that at least a few Democratic seats will pull through at the end through Dem GOTV efforts (read:  busing union flunkies to the polls).   If I were wise, I'd say the pickup ends up around 60 seats, with the GOP gaining solid control at 240-195.   But to hell with it... I'm betting on the over.   Eighty seats would really send a message.... Here comes the tsunami!

 

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