"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Another Reason Why the Big Democratic Skews in Polls Are Probably Wrong

A survey by the Guardian shows that Democratic voter registration in swing states is way down from 2008, signalling that Democratic enthusiasm for Obama's re-election has plummeted:

The biggest decline among registered voters within the surveyed swing states was in Florida. Between January and July this year, the state added 224,750 voters – 82,638 fewer than the same period in 2008. A similar comparison of the first seven months of 2012 and 2008 shows a dip in voter registrations of 25,486 in Iowa, 23,009 in Virginia, 19,199 in Nevada and 9,566 in Colorado.

The declines look particularly dramatic on the Democratic side, largely as a reflection of how well the Obama campaign did in mobilising new voters in its first run on the presidency in 2008. This year it has clearly struggled to repeat the performance.

In Iowa, Democrats registered 69,301 voters between January and August 2008, but over the same period this year the party's voter roll dropped by more than 45,000 as a result of the voting rolls being purged. Republicans in Iowa by contrast held relatively steady – they put on 7,515 voters in the first eight months of 2008 and 5,671 this year....

In 2008, Obama's Florida registration efforts played a crucial role in securing him the state, and with it the presidency. That year, the Democrats registered a thumping 196,490 voters while Republicans signed up just 54,394.

Yet in 2012, Democrats have only mustered about a quarter of their huge successes last time round: 50,909 voters. Republicans have also held steady in this state with 56,154 new registrants this year compared to 54,394 in 2008.

Tell me again why I should buy those polls that show D+12 in Ohio, or D+11 or D+9 or D+7 nationally?   I think we're being played by the MSM.  

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