"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

The Race for 50 in the Senate

Most observers consider the House safe for Republicans.   Increasingly, it looks like Mitt Romney will win the Presidency.   That will make Paul Ryan as Vice President the deciding vote in a 50-50 Senate to repeal Obamacare and to pass the key pieces of legislation Romney will want to get through quickly upon taking office.   Right now RealClearPolitics has the Senate at 46-44 (with leaners) for the Democrats, with 10 "toss up" races.   Can the Republicans win 6 of 10 and get to 50 votes in the Senate?   Maybe.

1. Arizona - Jeff Flake has a significant lead in the latest Rasmussen poll.   (I'm looking only at Rasmussen polls for consistency, and because I trust his accurcy and methods.)   That's R+1.

2. Connecticut - Linda McMahon is behind by six points and probably won't win in this blue state.

3. Indiana - Richard Mourdock was ahead significantly until his supposedly controversial abortion/rape comments.  (They were nothing of the kind, but that didn't keep the MSM from trying to tar him.)   I think he still pulls this out in a red state that will go hard for Romney.   Call it R+2.

4. Massachusetts - Scott Brown trails Fauxcohontas by five points in the latest poll.   I'm afraid he won't be able to pull the rabbit out of the hat, and we're going to have Elizabeth Warren to laugh at for the next six years.   (P.S.  The hard left loves her, and there's some chance she would be a Presidential candidate in 2012.)

5. Missouri - Todd Akin is the biggest wild card.   He's way behind a deeply unpopular liberal Senator, Claire McCaskill.   I don't think he can pull it out, although I wish he would.   He's a good man who misspoke about "legitimate rape," but I don't think he can unring that bell.

6. Montana - Denny Rehberg is currently tied with Jon Tester, the incumbent.   I think if he's tied this late wiht an incumbent, he wins on election day.   That makes R+3.

7.  Nevada - Dean Heller is up five in Rasmussen, and should coast to victory.   Hopefully he drags Romney along a little in Nevada to get those six EVs too.   That's R+4.

8.   Ohio - Josh Mandel is currently four points back of incumbent Sherrod Brown.   I think Ohio will be very close in the Presidential race, and I'm afraid Mandel will lose a close one.

9.  Virginia - George Allen is one point back, and with Romney pulling away Allen will win.   That makes R+5.

10.  Wisconsin - Tommy Thompson, the former governor, will pull away from the uber-liberal Tammy Baldwin, and win his Senate race and hence, the Senate for Republicans.   R+6.   I'm calling it.

You can see why the Dems and the MSM jumped all over Richard Mourdock and Todd Akin... those are seats Republicans ought to win easily.   If Akin loses, the GOP can still get the Senate.   If Mourdock loses too, it becomes a very small needle to thread.

More hopefully... in a wave election for Romney, which I hope happens, I can see Akin surprising in MO and Mandel coming from behind in OH.   If that happens, it would be 52-48 GOP, and, as they say, happy days are here again.

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