Here's my prediction for 11/6. I'm out on a limb, but I think things will break hard this week for Romney and he'll win going away. People are fed up, no one is talking about how much they want another four years of Obama, Democrats will stay home, independents will either stay home or break hard for Romney, Republicans will be up early and voting, and then volunteering to call others, drive people to the polls, etc.
So here goes:
If everything really cascades, Romney could also pick off Michigan, Minnesota, Maine - 1st District, and Oregon. That would get him to 355 and be a huge repudiation of liberalism, and it would also likely bring the Senate with him.