- In 2004, for the Bush-Kerry election, exit polls showed turnout evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, 37-37, with 26% independents.
- In 2006, a very bad year for Republicans, showed Democrats with only a two point edge in turnout, 38-36. Again, there were 26% independents.
- In 2008, at the height of Obamamania, with a very weak Republican candidate in John McCain, and at the height of a financial panic attributed (falsely) to a Republican President, party affiliation exit polls showed a D+7 edge, 39-32, with 29% independents. (Note that 2008 wasn't so much a matter that there were more Democrats, but rather than Republicans chose to become independents.)
- In 2010, with Obamamania receding (like a bad dream), the party affiliation was back to nearly even at 36-36, with 28% still saying they were independents.
- Gallup’s most recent party-affiliation polling shows Democrats with a 4-point advantage (32 to 28 percent)m but Rasmussen Reports’ most recent party-affiliation polling shows Republicans with a 3-point advantage (37 to 34 percent). Note that in either case there are 29-30% independents.
The pros are seeing that a lot of the current polling that has a wide Democratic advantage is wrong, and that Romney not only is surging into the lead now, but has probably always been in the lead, largely due to independents breaking sharply away from the extreme liberalism, deficit spending, and foreign policy weakness of Obama. Romney's pulling away, and they know it, and that's what's driving the hysteria.