"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Obamacare-ageddon Tomorrow!

My prediction:  5-4 to overturn the individual mandate as unconstitutional, on the grounds that upholding it would mean that there is no limiting principle constraining the federal government's power under the Commerce Clause; but 6-3 upholding the rest of the abomination (Obamanation?) as constitutional, even though the whole house of cards makes no sense and is unworkable without the mandate as a funding mechanism.   The Court will say something to the effect that the economic impossibility of a piece of legislation is a question for Congress to fix, not the Court.    Roberts and Kennedy will vote with the majority on both, Roberts will write the opinion for the Court; Ginzberg will write the dissent/partial concurrence.

The most likely alternative:  a 6-3 decision upholding the whole thing as Constitutional under the Commerce Clause.   I call this one the "That Boat Sailed A Long Time Ago" doctrine, which concedes that Leviathan exists and is all-powerful.

The second most likely alternative:  a spasm of courage from Justices Kennedy and Roberts, who correctly conclude that the mandate is unconstitutional and non-severable from the statute as a whole, since it is patently the linchpin of the entire scheme.

9:00 am central tomorrow.   Check the SCOTUSblog for live-blogging of the decisions.

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