"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Primary Prediction Recap

My predictions for the Alabama and Mississippi primaries were close again, but underestimated Santorum's strength.    Here's what I said:

If I had to bet, I'd say that Santorum manages to pull out Alabama in a close one over Gingrich, with Romney a close third.   And Romney, largely because of endorsements and support from the MS party apparatus (a very corrupt state, by the way), pulls out a close win in Mississippi over Santorum, with Gingrich a close third...

Maybe I was trying to avoid wishful thinking.   I've been a fan of Santorum for awhile now, but I never quite thought he could make it.   I thought he'd pull out Alabama, but it wasn't as close as I thought.   And I thought he'd make it close in Mississippi, but he managed to pull out the victory, with Romney fading to third.   Apparently inevitability and the backing of the party apparatchiks doesn't matter so much, particularly to Evangelical "values" voters.  

Can Santorum make it all the way?   I'm still not too sure.   Romney has the delegate math going for him.  But what I said still holds:

This is one of my new theories of politics.... because we live in an affluent, somewhat decadent culture where people's attention span is limited, and where people are taught to think of politics in sports terms, i.e., through the prism of winning and losing, tactics and strategies, rather than policies that have real-world consequences.... because of that, too many people will simply try to vote for who they think will be the winner.   If Romney looks like the winner, people will jump on board.   If momentum shifts to Santorum, people will jump from Romney to Santorum.  

So how will that work going forward?   My road-map for Santorum is on track:

1. Win Kansas' caucus.   CHECK
2.  Win the Alabama and Mississippi primaries.   CHECK.  
3.  Gingrich under pressure to drop out.  CHECK.

Next steps:  Win the Missouri caucus on Saturday, March 17th.   Do well in the Illinois primary on March 20.   Win the Louisiana primary on March 24.    Win Wisconsin on April 3.

Mo.   Mentum.    

No comments:

Post a Comment