"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Predictions Recap

The Regular Guy's predictions for Super Tuesday were pretty much right on the mark.  

I predicted that Romney would win his home state of Massachusetts, the neighboring state of Vermont, and Virginia, where he only had to beat Ron Paul.   He did (although the victory over Paul was a lot closer than anyone would have thought, roughly 60-40).

I predicted that Gingrich would win his home state of Georgia handily.   He did.   But he finished third or last in every other race.   What is the rationale for him continuing?  

I predicted that Santorum would win Oklahoma and Tennessee.   He did, with a bigger than I expected win in Tenneseee.

Finally, I predicted that Romney would pull out a win over Santorum in Ohio, which he did, although more narrowly than I would have thought (1% rather than 3-4%).  

Romney also won caucuses in Alaska and Idaho, while Santorum won the North Dakota caucuses.   Romney won by far the most delegates, which is what matters.  

I have some minor feeling that Santorum will win next week in Missouri, Mississippi, Kansas, and Alabama, and that will generate some momentum for him.   But at this stage, in terms of delegate math, Romney clearly has the edge.   The only real wild card would be if Gingrich would drop out, leaving Santorum as the only non-Romney still standing.  

Which leads me to the following conspiratorial view:   Is Gingrich staying in to make sure that Santorum doesn't have a fair shot at beating Romney one-on-one?   Gingrich, for all his talk, is an establishment figure.   Could denying Santorum, who is perceived as too far right, be part of his plan?

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