The Romney campaign yesterday put out a spokesman to say in a loud voice that all of the other candidates for the GOP nomination should drop out because they can't win as a matter of basic delegate math. The position has some validity to it... as math. It will be extraordinarily difficult for Rick Santorum (and even more difficult for Newt Gingrich) to get enough delegates to win the nomination outright before the convention. But the position is ludicrous as politics, since, if either Santorum or Gingrich (or both) merely start to do slightly better, they could get enough delegates to deny Romney the nomination on the first ballot, and after that, all bets are off.
Here's a roadmap for Santorum to win the nomination. Admittedly, it involves some longshots:
1. Win Kansas' caucus on Saturday. He ought to, as the state is very conservative (a la Nebraska).
2. That gives him momentum going into next week, gives him free advertising on Sunday news programs, etc. The storyline will be: Santorum has mo, Romney can't close the deal with conservatives.
3. Win the Alabama and Mississippi primaries next week on Tuesday. Again, he has a good chance of doing this, although his main conservative rival, Gingrich, will fight hard there. Romney could come third in both states, which again would support the meme that Romney can't close the deal with "real Republicans," i.e., the conservative base.
4. If Santorum wins both Alabama and Mississippi, that will mean he is the presumptive conservative not-Romney candidate, and Gingrich will be under pressure to drop out. I think there is a decent chance that Gingrich dislikes Romney enough that he will do so.
5. Win the Missouri caucus on Saturday, March 17th. That's St. Patrick's Day, and I would expect a low turnout, which aids the conservative Santorum. Note: none of these are longshots, yet. All of this I fully expect to happen (with the possible exception of Gingrich dropping out... he's that arrogant). Which means....
6. Ten days from now the Sunday news shows will all be talking about Santorum having won four straight contests, Santorum having momentum, Romney fading, etc. Romney will still be way up in the delegate math, but he will be severely damaged, the national polls will show another downward sine wave for him, and another upward sine wave for Santorum.
7. There will be a debate on Monday, March 19th, in Oregon. At that point, Santorum and Romney will be essentially mano-a-mano. If Santorum can hold his own, or even score a debate victory -- although the MSM will be spinning against him -- he can keep his momentum.
8. The Illinois primary is on March 20th. Illinois, a significantly more liberal state, ought to be good Romney territory. Romney ought to win. But, if Santorum can somehow pull off a good showing, or even win, he could generate even more momentum. And, in any event...
9. The Louisiana primary is on March 24th. Another Southern state, so with Gingrich out, Santorum should win.
10. That gets us to the end of March. If I'm right, Santorum will be sailing into April having won, at a minimum, 5 of 6 contests since Super Tuesday.
11. The first week of April is the Wisconsin primary in the Regular Guy's backyard. The biggest conservative talk show host in the state, Mark Belling on WISN 1130, has recently been talking up Santorum. I think Santorum could win there too, and at that point, Romney will be severely wounded.
12. The next big set of primaries is on April 24th: New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Pennsylvania. Romney should win the first four, but they are all states that Republicans won't win and don't need. Santorum ought to win (and if he can't, then I'm all wrong) his home state of Pennsylvania, which will offset the narrative of "Romney's big night." Santorum will be able to say: I can win swing states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Romney can only win liberal states like New York and Connecticut. (We will have all conveniently forgotten that Romney won Ohio and Florida.)
13. May shapes up well for a conservative alternative (meaning Santorum), with primaries in very conservative states. There are primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Oregon, Arkansas, Kentucky and Texas. Only Oregon looks like a Romney win, but by then, if Santorum's momentum continues, he may be running the table.
14. Which means Romney will be hanging on by his fingernails for the June winner-take-all primaries in California and New Jersey. Which he will likely win. And which will mean....
15. The Republicans would be in danger of nominating a candidate who, in head-to-head matchups with a conservative alternative, was only able to win in states like New York, Connecticut, Oregon, California and New Jersey that are Democratic strongholds no Republican has won since Reagan! At that point, with a brokered convention looming, will Republican powerbrokers really say to themselves that they want to get behind someone that the base has obviously rejected?
All of this is conjecture, of course. But, looking at this schedule, I see this thing going all the way to the convention.
What could derail it would be if Gingrich, and not Santorum, wins Mississippi and Alabama. Gingrich can't beat Romney out of the deep South, but that would keep him in the race, and that would mean a split conservative vote, which in turn would mean a Romney nomination sooner rather than later.
No comments:
Post a Comment