"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Academy Award Predictions

Not that I really care about how the self-congratulatory congratulate themselves, but here are the Regular Guy's Academy Award picks for tonight.   Who will win is in bold; who should win is in italics.

Best Picture:

Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Misérables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

Bradley Cooper, Daniel Day-Lewis, Hugh Jackman, Joaquin Phoenix, Denzel Washington

Best Actress in a Leading Role:

Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence (above), Emmanuelle Riva, Quvenzhané Wallis, Naomi Watts

Best Director:

Amour (Michael Haneke), Beasts of the Southern Wild (Benh Zeitlin), Life of Pi (Ang Lee), Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell), Lincoln (Steven Spielberg)

If Lincoln wins Best Picture (which it could), it will mean Hollywood is brain dead.    Of the Best Picture nominees I've seen, I'd put it behind Argo, Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty, and ahead of only Life of Pi.   I haven't seen Amour, Beasts, Django or Les Miserables from lack of interest, but the Regular Wife and Regular Daughters thought it was wonderful, so I suspect it's also better than Lincoln.   As I've said elsewhere, Lincoln is one of those projects that everyone says is wonderful, but is actually full of cliches.   By way of comparison, I challenge anyone to watch HBO's John Adams from a few years back and not conclude that it was wildly better and more interesting than Spielberg's big budget Lincoln.  


Oh, and for the supporting actor and actresses, here are my predictions:

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Alan Arkin (Argo), Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook), Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables), Helen Hunt (The Sessions), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

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