"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Monday, February 25, 2013

Academy Award Predictions Redux

The Regular Guy was pretty good on predicting the Academy Awards, which does not mean that I am some genius movie critic, but only means that the Academy Awards themselves are so predictable.   Here's who I had winning:

Picture - Argo (right)
Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis (right)
Best Actress - Jennifer Lawrence (right)
Best Director - David Russell (wrong - it went to Ang Lee, apparently because creating precious images in computers now counts as high art in Hollywood, and is apparently more important than getting great performances out of living actors like Lawrence and Bradley Cooper)
Best Supporting Actor - Tommy Lee Jones (wrong - and I'm happy about it, since Jones chewed the scenery in exactly the same way he always chews the scenery)
Best Supporting Actress - Sally Field (wrong - and I'm happy again, since my choice for who should win, Anne Hathaway, actually did win).

So, on the big ones I was right and the others I was wrong.   Not bad.

But did I do better than Nate Silver?   Meh.   It's about a push.  

On the other hand, his method is instructive, and shows why the Oscars, by the time you get through all the other Award ceremonies, are really almost a foregone conclusion, and not very exciting to watch.   


P.S. On Argo... I liked it fine, but it's not a great movie.   Compare the list from the 1970s of Best Picture winners:

1970 - Patton
1971 - The French Connection
1972 - The Godfather
1973 - The Sting
1974 - The Godfather II
1975 - One Flew Over the Cuckoo's nest
1976 - Rocky
1977 - Annie Hall
1978 - The Deerhunter
1979 - Kramer v. Kramer

Nine straight absolutely iconic, landmark movies.   The only movie Argo should even be in the conversation with is Kramer v. Kramer, but that featured bravura performances by two of America's greatest acting talents, Dustin Hoffman and Meryl Streep, so I'd still give the nod to the 1970s film.  

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