"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Prediction Fail!

Well, yesterday's predictions for the Michigan and Arizona primaries were close, but no cigar.   I wrote:  "Rick Santorum will narrowly edge out Mitt Romney in his home state of Michigan tonight, by something on the order of 40-38, with 12% going to Ron Paul and 8-9% going to Newt Gingrich, who is fading fast."   It turned out that Romney edge out Santorum, 41-38; Paul got his normal 12%; and Gingrich faded faster than I thought he would, getting only 6%.   The delegates from Michigan will split evenly between Santorum and Romney because of their close finish, but Romney will claim the momentum going into Super Tuesday.

I watched the concession speech Santorum gave last night, and Romney's victory speech, while I was running on the treadmill.   Both acquitted themselves well, and I particularly liked Santorum's section on energy policy, which I doubt most people have heard from him, since the MSM focuses so much on contraception and religious issues (which Santorum didn't talk about at all, at least as far as I could tell).   I don't know if there is animus between them, but Romney could do a good deal worse than Santorum as his VP candidate.   Choosing him would shore up the base of pro-Life conservatives, and Santorum would be a strong "attack dog" against Obama -- the typical VP role in an election.   Choosing him would also help across the upper Midwest, states Romney needs to win in November.   I think he'll ultimately choose Rubio as the first Hispanic VP candidate, in the hope that it helps him in Arizona, New Mexico, and Florida.   But that has its dangers too, since Rubio is largely unvetted on the national stage.   Santorum has warts, and a Mormon-Opus Dei slate would strike some in the MSM as "scary," but, then, Santorum's warts are known, and it may be that the country is ready for a national conversation on the role of faith in politics, particularly where they'll be opposed by the most aggressively anti-religion, secularist, elitist administration ever.  

Anyway, we're on to next week, where Santorum could come back and win Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and caucuses in Alaska, Idaho and North Dakota.   If he does, the narrative will flip back to why Romney can't close the deal.   And then we'll be in for a long haul.

Watch for Romney to put a full-court advertising blitz on in Ohio.   If he wins there, he can probably claim that he's the presumptive nominee.

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