Yesterday’s events should remind us that all the models and all the “laws” of politics that political scientists labor to uncover are really just rules of thumb and probability calculations. Presidential elections are driven by events as well as by “forces”, and many of the most important events are inherently unpredictable until, quite suddenly, they occur.
November is still a very long way off, and the world remains a radically unpredictable place.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Walter Russell Mead makes a good point, no less wise even though it's also obvious: