New Hampshire Prediction

The latest polling from New Hampshire has the six main candidates as follows:

 

Newt Gingrich .................................. 9%

Jon Huntsman ................................... 16%

Ron Paul ....................................... 18%

Rick Perry ..................................... 1%

Mitt Romney .................................... 37%

Rick Santorum .................................. 11%

Undecided........................ 7%

Here's my prediction:

1. Romney.   He'll win easily by double-digits, but will have less than 35%, and the story will be about a bit of a fade.   Romney in 2008 got 31.6% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, losing to John McCain.   If he can't get more than that figure this year (after getting the same number of votes in Iowa in 2012 as he got in 2008), I'd expect to hear a meme that Romney's been campaigning for four years and hasn't closed the deal with any new voters in all that time.  I say Romney eeks out 33%.

2. Paul.   I think there are enough libertarians and cross-over independents and liberals who will get Paul to second-place.   It will be discounted by the media and the Republican establishment.    I have him at 20%.

3.  Santorum.   I think Santorum is on the upswing and will overtake Huntsman for third, which will be the big story going forward.   I predict 17%.

4.  Huntsman.   Fourth-place causes him to "reassess" his candidacy.   15%.

5.   Gingrich.   Fifth-place causes Gingrich to double-down on nasty-speak until someone in the party (oh, please, Wise Men, save us!) tells Gingrich to cool it for the sake of the country. 11%.

6.  Perry.   Hasn't competed well and didn't compete here at all.   South Carolina is his Waterloo.   2%... in the Buddy Roemer range.