"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Florida Primary and a Look Forward

Mitt Romney will win today's Florida primary, re-establishing himself as the prohibitive favorite for the GOP nomination.   And why not?  His two wins -- three, if you count his virtual tie in Iowa -- are all in swing states, Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, that the GOP must compete in and win if they are to win in 2012.   Meanwhile, Gingrich's win in South Carolina means little, since any GOP candidate will defeat Obama there.   A Romney-Rubio ticket will sew up Florida.   But a Romney-Santorum ticket puts Pennsylvania (Santorum's home state) in play, and maybe Michigan, since Santorum's appeal to Reagan Democrats and Romney's name (his dad was Governor of Michigan) both work there.   Romney's Mormon faith also probably brings Nevada back into play (lots of Mormons), another swing state that Republicans must compete in and win.   Santorum has taken the high road, and hasn't burned his bridges with the party to disqualify him from the VP slot.   And Santorum will have been battle-tested in the primaries and certainly won't be shy about debating Joe Biden, with whom he served in the Senate for twelve years.   (Santorum might also understand that he's still relatively young -- 54 this spring -- and would be in line for 2016 if Romney can't beat Obama.)

We could do worse.  

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