"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Hubris and Punditry

The wonder of blogging on the Internet includes the ability to look back at one's own predictions.   It's not pretty, and it's no wonder that the paid pundits in the mainstream media almost never do so, because it would expose them as know-nothings, or at least as know-not-much-more-than-we-do.   Anyway, here's what I had to say five weeks ago about Rick Santorum:

... you can't beat somebody with nobody.   Obama loses to a generic Republican over and over.   But we can't run a generic Republican.   We have to run an actual person.   And he's got to come from among these three men:   Romney, Gingrich, Perry.    The remaining candidates -- Bachmann, Cain, Santorum, Paul, and Huntsman -- aren't serious, and should bow out.   Then the question will boil down to whether either Gingrich or Perry can convince people that they could be a viable candidate against Obama.   If not, then Romney will be the default candidate...
Santorum - for whatever reason, has never caught on.   Personality?   Appearance?   Whatever.   I think he's a strong conservative, he has good experience, and he's a good man and strongly pro-Life.   But if he hasn't flown by now, he's not going to.
Cain is already out, and Bachmann may follow today.   But Gingrich and Perry have disappointed, and meanwhile Rick Santorum has surged to the forefront as Romney's main challenger.   I still think Romney will end up the default candidate, but I was wrong about a lot of other things.  

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