Listen, I'm sure president Obama now realizes, preseason's over.
"I should probably familiarize myself with my presidency and learn some of the various numbers and things that go along with it."
It wasn't so much his the body language as the mouth language that he was using. The pauses in between. You know, I used to think the pauses, he was just trying to think of smaller words for the little brains to figure out what he was saying. This time, I really think the pauses were just, 'I like food.' You know, I think he was just thinking, 'my children are nice.' It didn't seem present in the same way.
I'm going to use the same strategy that Obama took. It's the rope-a-dope. But instead of letting your opponent punch himself out, you just get beat up.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
If You've Lost Chris Matthews and Andrew Sullivan and Tom Brokaw and James Carville and Jon Stewart...
Stewart on GMA this morning:
Mitt Humiliates the Media
John Nolte kills it here:
Last night the GOP contender showed up to kick butt and chew bubblegum, but unfortunately for Barack Obama, Romney was all out of bubblegum. The real loser, though, was a corrupt mainstream media that had just spent months desperately crafting a Mitt Romney that doesn't exist -- a Mitt Romney voters would not find acceptable as president.We've all seen what's happened month after month after month after month: Obama's Media Palace Guards have assured us that Romney can do nothing right and Obama can do nothing wrong. This carefully crafted media game-plan (coordinated openly with the Obama campaign) was meant to strip Romney of the single quality voters demand in a president, and that's competence. If you're not competent, you’re not an acceptable alternative, which means we're going to vote for "the devil we know."But last night all of this blew up in the media's face, and this morning the American people trust the media even less than they did the night before -- and for one very simple reason: they were lied to … again. Where was the bumbling, elitist, out of touch, awkward, wife-killing, gay-hating, corporate vulture who tortures dogs and stumbles through Europe like Chevy Chase in a "Vacation" sequel?Well, he didn’t show up last night because that's not who Mitt Romney is. That Mitt Romney is a media creation manufactured out of lies and desperation by those who spend 24 hours a day crafting trip wires, fabricating gaffes, and standing before the elephant of Barack Obama's failures and asking, "What elephant?"
For all of moderator Jim Lehrer's flaws last night, the 78-year-old semi-retired PBS newsman did the only thing we conservatives ask of the media: he mostly stayed out of the way and offered up a fairly level playing field. There were no gotcha questions and no What about your gaaaaaffes? To his great credit (though he did try to rescue the president more than once), Lehrer kept the debate in an arena no liberal can win in --and that's on the issues.Unlike his cretin colleagues, Lehrer was actually interested in the issues that matter. So he asked about taxes, job creation, education, the deficit, and an overall governing philosophy. In other words, he didn't stack the deck to distract from what a horrible philosophy big government liberalism really is. With a rare opportunity like this, if you’re smart, prepared and all out of bubblegum, a conservative can win any debate. Obviously, Mitt Romney not only won last night, he delivered the kind of satisfying drubbing to Barack Obama we conservatives have been waiting four years to savor.Yes, someone finally was given and took full advantage of the opportunity to point to that little emperor and say to the world, "Look, he's naked!"
And now the lying, biased, corrupt, degenerate mainstream media has a problem on its hands. Because now the whole world knows that they were not only pointing to clothes that didn’t exist but also attempting to destroy anyone who dared cry "Naked!"
Happy Thought for the Day
The next debate features Paul Ryan against Joe Biden.
How'd you like to be Slow Joe right about now, with the future of your party resting on your shoulders?
How'd you like to be Slow Joe right about now, with the future of your party resting on your shoulders?
Iconic
This is the picture the history books will use when they talk about how Obama lost the 2012 election:
The Silence of the Lambs
Among the topics that were not addressed in last night's debate on domestic policy was one that is very important to the Regular Guy. I am a Catholic (albeit somewhat newly minted... about six months ago) and pro-Life. The debate did not touch upon the topic of abortion. Obama is easily the most pro-abortion President, having voted against the Born-Alive Protection Act as an Illinois state senator. He is, in short, a proponent of infanticide, with views on abortion that are far outside the American mainstream.
I am certain that Romney was happy to focus on jobs and the economy, and I'm glad he landed so many punches on those topics. But I would like the topic to be raised, if only because otherwise we let the roughly 50 million children who have been aborted since Roe v. Wade remain silenced.
I am certain that Romney was happy to focus on jobs and the economy, and I'm glad he landed so many punches on those topics. But I would like the topic to be raised, if only because otherwise we let the roughly 50 million children who have been aborted since Roe v. Wade remain silenced.
Girl of the Day - Ultra-Liberal Version (Susan Sarandon)
I'm pretty sure Susan Sarandon didn't have a great night last night watching the debate. The famously ultra-liberal actress probably needs a pick-me-up today, her 66th birthday.... like being the GotD for TRGB!
Politics aside, Sarandon was extra-hot when she was younger, and stayed hot longer than almost any actress I can remember.
Politics aside, Sarandon was extra-hot when she was younger, and stayed hot longer than almost any actress I can remember.
Chickens Coming Home to Roost
Paul Rahe hits Obama's debate performance with a hard and accurate punch:
For the first time in his life, Barack Obama was cornered. For the first time in his life, he was to be held accountable for his achievements. He was the ultimate affirmative action baby, and he had always been given a free pass. He had always run -- for chairman of the Harvard Law Review, for the Illinois state senate, for the United States Senate, and for the Presidency -- on promise. Now he was an executive running for re-election, and he was going to be held responsible for what he had done and for what he had failed to do. And, to make matters worse, he had been deprived of his security blanket. He did not have a teleprompter to fall back on....
Of course, it is not yet over. Barack Obama may yet pull a rabbit out of a hat. But I think this unlikely. He has always been in over his head, and now that fact is visible -- even to his worshipers in the legacy media. He has no program to run on. He repudiated the recommendations of the debt commission he appointed. He has no record to run on, and he knows it. Last night we watched the President of the United States flail and flounder. In the weeks to come, we will watch his campaign and the "unofficial campaign" mounted by the folks at Pravda-on-the-Hudson, Pravda-on-the-Potomac, CNN, ABC, NBC, and CBS do the same. The chickens are coming home to roost, and there is now nothing that they can do about it.
A Morning Thought on Last Night
Bill Maher's snarky tweet: "so he does need a Teleprompter." Chris Matthews' epic meltdown on MSNBC: "What was he doing up there?" James Carville's devastating comment on CNN: "He looked like he didn't want to be there."
Why did white liberals in the media turn so fast and so harshly on Obama's debate performance, and in such personal terms?
I have two theories:
1. This is the reaction of people who feel like they have been sold a bill of goods. It was an Emperor Has No Clothes moment,where it became evident to anyone with eyes that Obama was not "the smartest President ever," but instead is a man who is out of his depth. It was the reaction of people who have to suddenly come to grips with the fact that they've been carrying water for four years for a guy who isn't up to the job. They are angry, in short, because they have been made fools of.
Or:
2. There is a whiff here of pre-debate intelligence being confirmed. I think Washington insiders have known for years that Obama is not as smart as people think and, more importantly, is not a hard worker. The golf, the vacations, the ESPN watching, the jaunts to Letterman and The View, the rumors (from the Ulsterman Report) of Obama lounging around the West Wing watching sports with Reggie Love, the skipping of intelligence briefings, etc. They all add up to a word that many people aren't happy saying about a black President... could it be that he's a little bit lazy? But forget about race... if he were a white Republican, wouldn't we be hearing endless jokes and stories about his laziness and lack of curiosity (when was the last time you read a story about a book Obama has been reading?) and how he doesn't speak any foreign languages and how he doesn't listen in briefings and how he doesn't ask questions of briefers and how he hasn't called committee or cabinet meetings, etc.
Why did white liberals in the media turn so fast and so harshly on Obama's debate performance, and in such personal terms?
I have two theories:
1. This is the reaction of people who feel like they have been sold a bill of goods. It was an Emperor Has No Clothes moment,where it became evident to anyone with eyes that Obama was not "the smartest President ever," but instead is a man who is out of his depth. It was the reaction of people who have to suddenly come to grips with the fact that they've been carrying water for four years for a guy who isn't up to the job. They are angry, in short, because they have been made fools of.
Or:
2. There is a whiff here of pre-debate intelligence being confirmed. I think Washington insiders have known for years that Obama is not as smart as people think and, more importantly, is not a hard worker. The golf, the vacations, the ESPN watching, the jaunts to Letterman and The View, the rumors (from the Ulsterman Report) of Obama lounging around the West Wing watching sports with Reggie Love, the skipping of intelligence briefings, etc. They all add up to a word that many people aren't happy saying about a black President... could it be that he's a little bit lazy? But forget about race... if he were a white Republican, wouldn't we be hearing endless jokes and stories about his laziness and lack of curiosity (when was the last time you read a story about a book Obama has been reading?) and how he doesn't speak any foreign languages and how he doesn't listen in briefings and how he doesn't ask questions of briefers and how he hasn't called committee or cabinet meetings, etc.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
A Last Thought on the Debate
Everything I saw and everything I've heard since suggests that everyone recognizes that Romney won the debate, not just handily, but overwhelmingly and devastatingly. This wasn't just a debate victory, it was the Emperor-Has-No-Clothes moment we've been waiting for.
The only question remaining is whether the mainstream media will sacrifice everything left of its credibility to try to drag this reeking husk of a Presidency across the finish line.
We'll see if the "fact checkers" hit Romney hard over the next few days.
The only question remaining is whether the mainstream media will sacrifice everything left of its credibility to try to drag this reeking husk of a Presidency across the finish line.
We'll see if the "fact checkers" hit Romney hard over the next few days.
Spinning the Debate
Even CNN is saying Romney won the debate. Deadly comments from James Carville: "Obama looked like he didn't want to be there."
Stephanie Cutter spinning for the President: "He wasn't speaking to the pundit class. He was speaking to people at home." They know he did badly.
***
Candy Crowley: "People who feel like they lost the debate talk about wanting the moderator to intervene more." Just after Stephanie Cutter commented that Lehrer hadn't controlled Romney enough.
***
Fact checking on CNN: Obama's claim that Romney would cut taxes by $5 trillion for rich is graded "FALSE."
****
Obama talked four minutes longer than Romney by four minutes. Not surprising. That was my take too... he's an incredibly boring guy who loves to hear himself talk and talk and talk and talk.
***
CNN pundit says Cutter basically admitted that Romney won the debate.
***
Anderson Cooper: President as "listless."
Stephanie Cutter spinning for the President: "He wasn't speaking to the pundit class. He was speaking to people at home." They know he did badly.
***
Candy Crowley: "People who feel like they lost the debate talk about wanting the moderator to intervene more." Just after Stephanie Cutter commented that Lehrer hadn't controlled Romney enough.
***
Fact checking on CNN: Obama's claim that Romney would cut taxes by $5 trillion for rich is graded "FALSE."
****
Obama talked four minutes longer than Romney by four minutes. Not surprising. That was my take too... he's an incredibly boring guy who loves to hear himself talk and talk and talk and talk.
***
CNN pundit says Cutter basically admitted that Romney won the debate.
***
Anderson Cooper: President as "listless."
Drunkblogging the Debate!
8:00 pm - Jim Lehrer looks about a million years old. And there's no liberal like an old liberal. "Thousands of people offered suggestions for topics... but we only took the liberal-leaning questions."
8:03 pm - Too much pre-birth from Jim Lehrer. But here we go. They both look cool and confident.
8:04 pm - Jobs and the economy. Obama goes first. Twenty years ago... happy anniversary to Michelle. Pretty nice touch, frankly. "We've begun to fight our way back. Auto industry roaring back. Romney wants to cut taxes, roll back regulations.
8:06 pm - Romney wishes Obama happy anniversary graciously. Now he moves to anecdotes about real people hurting. Romney five-point plan. Energy independence. Obama's plan is "Trickle-down government"... good line.
8:09 pm - Obama's sad old line of 100,000 new science and math teachers. Obama says we need to lower corporate income tax and boost American energy production.... really? Obama says he wants to reduce the deficit.... really?
8:12 pm - Romney: middle income people being crushed... household income down $4000 is "economy tax," higher gas prices is burying people.
We're 13 minutes in and Romney is crushing this. "All of the increase in natural gas production is despite your actions, Mr. President, not because of it."
8:14 pm - Obama: "We cut taxes for middle-class families by $3600." Really?
The fact-checkers better be working overtime on Obama here, because he's in full bullshit mode.
***
8:18 pm - Romney was very good on lowering tax rates as a means of fostering small business growth.
Romney also good on telling President he's misrepresenting his plan.
8:20 pm - Obama: Romney says Donald Trump is a small businessman. Huh?
I hate to say this... but I really hate Obama. He's so full of bullshit.
Lehrer: "We're way over time."
Romney: "It's fun, isn't it?" (He's doing GREAT!)
***
8:22 pm - National Federation of Businesses says Obama's plan to raise rates to 39.6% will cost 700,000 jobs.
8:23 pm - Obama keeps harping on the $5 trillion tax cut for rich people after Romney has said no over and over again. Bush tax cuts caused financial crisis. Clinton approach worked.
This whole thing is silly. The difference between 39.6% and 36% rate is not what ails us in either direction.
***
8:26 pm - Romney: Deficit is a "moral issue." Not moral for my generation to pass onto future generations. "Is the program so crucial that it's worth borrowing money from China to pay for?" Line of the night.
8:28 pm - Obama: When I walked into the oval office I was facing a trillion dollar deficit. Claiming he's a deficit cutter now. Unbelievable bullshit... Romney needs to hammer him hard on this.
Lies, lies, lies, lies, lies, lies.
***
Sorry had to take a break there. I don't think Romney hit Obama hard enough on the deficit.
8:35 pm - Lehrer is actually helping Obama. Unbelievable. Obama is getting away with pontificating. Now I don't know what he's talking about... a woman teaching school with 42 kids in her classroom. Obama is literally wandering aimlessly now... family who's got an autistic kid... he's just pulling out things from earlier speeches now.
8:38 pm - Romney hits Obama on Solyndra. Oil companies get $2.8 billion in tax breaks, while Obama gave $90 billion to green energy companies.
***
8:40 pm - Entitlements. Basic structure of Social security is "sound" according to Obama. Only if you're living in La-la Land. We saved $716 billion in Medicare... huh?
Lies, lies, lies, lies, lies.
To me Romney is crushing him.
8:44 pm - Romney hitting Obama on cutting $716 billion in Medicare cuts that will hurt seniors on Medicare Advantage, make doctors and hospitals drop out of Medicare.
8:46 pm - Obama: "folks like my grandmother at the mercy of the private insurance system..."
I want to puke.
***
8:47 pm - Romney: "I'd just as soon not have the government tell me what kind of health care I can have."
He's doing well.
***
8:49 pm - Obama says Medicare has no profit and lower administrative costs than private insurance. Hmmmmm.... sounds like a rationale for communism WHICH HAS NEVER WORKED ANYWHERE.
***
8:51 pm - On regulation: Romney very good on this... hitting Dodd-Frank and "too big to fail" banks.
Lehrer is terrible.
***
8:53 pm - Obama: Romney just wants to repeal Dodd-Frank... "Does anyone think that we had too much oversight on Wall Street?"
8:55 pm - Romney is an adult. That's straight from the Regular Wife.
Lehrer is terrible. Did I say that already?
***
8:56 pm - Romney on Obamacare. Obamacare is going to cost people more. Takes money out of Medicare. Creates unelected boards. Makes businesses less likely to hire.
8:58 pm - The Regular Son wants to write something:
I'm not quite as boozed-up as the Regular Dad. I think Obamacare kind of gets you into the weeds in debate because the thing is so gosh-darn complicated. Romney absolutely crushed him on the economy. Real quick point: These debates are all about appearance. Look at Romney while O's talking; he has a mild, pleasant smile on his face. Look at Prezidizzle Obizzle while Mitt's talking; his smile is contemptuous and mocking. There is one very simple reason while O's likability ratings are still up. It rhymes with schmirst schlack schresident.
***
9:02 pm - Romney killing Obama on Obamacare.
***
9:05 pm - Somewhat infuriating in both directions. Obama pretends that he's fiscally conservative. Romney hedges conservatism to appeal to the middle.
***
One more thing from the Regular Son: Romney's smile is driving O nuts. It says, "If you worked for me I'd fire your butt." Notice: O can't look Mitt in the eye. Romney talks to Obama; Obama talks to Lehrer, as if he's saying, "Help me, Jim!"
9:11 pm - I don't think Mitt is quite as strong on healthcare. I've just had an epiphany: It makes perfect sense that O would create a bill as hopelessly complex as the ACA. He's a post-moderist-Marxist-progressive. He likes to think government is just smarter now than it used to be.
***
9:18 pm - I want to see what Mark Steyn says about this debate. I can't help thinking he'll think this was all whistling past the graveyard, fiddling while Rome burns, whatever metaphor you want... we're going over a cliff, and we're talking about minutiae.
9:19 pm - Obama's default is always to demagoguery. Romney wants to cut taxes for rich people and pay for them by cutting funds for education.
Obama now talking about the student loan program. Again, what would Mark Steyn say? (I think he would agree with me that we shouldn't have a federal student loan program to begin with. If we didn't have it, young people wouldn't be $1 trillion in debt.)
Romney getting tired? Maybe for a minute there when he went to Solyndra again...
Romney: "I don't just talk about it. I've been there..."
***
If Lehrer is still alive in four years, please please please don't let him moderate a debate.
***
9:25 pm - Premise of Lehrer question about gridlock assumes, as the MSM always does, that government could do more if Republicans could just compromise.
Obama: "I will take ideas from anyone..." Amazing balls on this guy.
***
9:26 pm - Obama pontificating. He's going to run through the time for closing statements....
***
9:27 pm - Obama's closing statement. "Four years ago, we were going through difficult times... my faith and confidence in the American future is undiminished." Anecdotes. "Closing loopholes for companies shipping jobs overseas..." He just keeps saying these things.
Obama talks about the "American people" like they are separate from him, alien.
"I would fight every single day... except when I'm golfing."
***
Romney's closing statement - Two paths leading in very different directions. If the President is re-elected, bad things ensue. If I'm re-elected I'll do the opposite.
Good ending. Lucky he was able to go last.
I'll be very interested to see what the pundits say... I think Romney did just great. I give him an A-.
***
My final word. Romney crossed the threshold of plausibility as a potential President. I think he will see a nice bump out of this debate.
8:03 pm - Too much pre-birth from Jim Lehrer. But here we go. They both look cool and confident.
8:04 pm - Jobs and the economy. Obama goes first. Twenty years ago... happy anniversary to Michelle. Pretty nice touch, frankly. "We've begun to fight our way back. Auto industry roaring back. Romney wants to cut taxes, roll back regulations.
8:06 pm - Romney wishes Obama happy anniversary graciously. Now he moves to anecdotes about real people hurting. Romney five-point plan. Energy independence. Obama's plan is "Trickle-down government"... good line.
8:09 pm - Obama's sad old line of 100,000 new science and math teachers. Obama says we need to lower corporate income tax and boost American energy production.... really? Obama says he wants to reduce the deficit.... really?
8:12 pm - Romney: middle income people being crushed... household income down $4000 is "economy tax," higher gas prices is burying people.
We're 13 minutes in and Romney is crushing this. "All of the increase in natural gas production is despite your actions, Mr. President, not because of it."
8:14 pm - Obama: "We cut taxes for middle-class families by $3600." Really?
The fact-checkers better be working overtime on Obama here, because he's in full bullshit mode.
***
8:18 pm - Romney was very good on lowering tax rates as a means of fostering small business growth.
Romney also good on telling President he's misrepresenting his plan.
8:20 pm - Obama: Romney says Donald Trump is a small businessman. Huh?
I hate to say this... but I really hate Obama. He's so full of bullshit.
Lehrer: "We're way over time."
Romney: "It's fun, isn't it?" (He's doing GREAT!)
***
8:22 pm - National Federation of Businesses says Obama's plan to raise rates to 39.6% will cost 700,000 jobs.
8:23 pm - Obama keeps harping on the $5 trillion tax cut for rich people after Romney has said no over and over again. Bush tax cuts caused financial crisis. Clinton approach worked.
This whole thing is silly. The difference between 39.6% and 36% rate is not what ails us in either direction.
***
8:26 pm - Romney: Deficit is a "moral issue." Not moral for my generation to pass onto future generations. "Is the program so crucial that it's worth borrowing money from China to pay for?" Line of the night.
8:28 pm - Obama: When I walked into the oval office I was facing a trillion dollar deficit. Claiming he's a deficit cutter now. Unbelievable bullshit... Romney needs to hammer him hard on this.
Lies, lies, lies, lies, lies, lies.
***
Sorry had to take a break there. I don't think Romney hit Obama hard enough on the deficit.
8:35 pm - Lehrer is actually helping Obama. Unbelievable. Obama is getting away with pontificating. Now I don't know what he's talking about... a woman teaching school with 42 kids in her classroom. Obama is literally wandering aimlessly now... family who's got an autistic kid... he's just pulling out things from earlier speeches now.
8:38 pm - Romney hits Obama on Solyndra. Oil companies get $2.8 billion in tax breaks, while Obama gave $90 billion to green energy companies.
***
8:40 pm - Entitlements. Basic structure of Social security is "sound" according to Obama. Only if you're living in La-la Land. We saved $716 billion in Medicare... huh?
Lies, lies, lies, lies, lies.
To me Romney is crushing him.
8:44 pm - Romney hitting Obama on cutting $716 billion in Medicare cuts that will hurt seniors on Medicare Advantage, make doctors and hospitals drop out of Medicare.
8:46 pm - Obama: "folks like my grandmother at the mercy of the private insurance system..."
I want to puke.
***
8:47 pm - Romney: "I'd just as soon not have the government tell me what kind of health care I can have."
He's doing well.
***
8:49 pm - Obama says Medicare has no profit and lower administrative costs than private insurance. Hmmmmm.... sounds like a rationale for communism WHICH HAS NEVER WORKED ANYWHERE.
***
8:51 pm - On regulation: Romney very good on this... hitting Dodd-Frank and "too big to fail" banks.
Lehrer is terrible.
***
8:53 pm - Obama: Romney just wants to repeal Dodd-Frank... "Does anyone think that we had too much oversight on Wall Street?"
8:55 pm - Romney is an adult. That's straight from the Regular Wife.
Lehrer is terrible. Did I say that already?
***
8:56 pm - Romney on Obamacare. Obamacare is going to cost people more. Takes money out of Medicare. Creates unelected boards. Makes businesses less likely to hire.
8:58 pm - The Regular Son wants to write something:
I'm not quite as boozed-up as the Regular Dad. I think Obamacare kind of gets you into the weeds in debate because the thing is so gosh-darn complicated. Romney absolutely crushed him on the economy. Real quick point: These debates are all about appearance. Look at Romney while O's talking; he has a mild, pleasant smile on his face. Look at Prezidizzle Obizzle while Mitt's talking; his smile is contemptuous and mocking. There is one very simple reason while O's likability ratings are still up. It rhymes with schmirst schlack schresident.
***
9:02 pm - Romney killing Obama on Obamacare.
***
9:05 pm - Somewhat infuriating in both directions. Obama pretends that he's fiscally conservative. Romney hedges conservatism to appeal to the middle.
***
One more thing from the Regular Son: Romney's smile is driving O nuts. It says, "If you worked for me I'd fire your butt." Notice: O can't look Mitt in the eye. Romney talks to Obama; Obama talks to Lehrer, as if he's saying, "Help me, Jim!"
9:11 pm - I don't think Mitt is quite as strong on healthcare. I've just had an epiphany: It makes perfect sense that O would create a bill as hopelessly complex as the ACA. He's a post-moderist-Marxist-progressive. He likes to think government is just smarter now than it used to be.
***
9:18 pm - I want to see what Mark Steyn says about this debate. I can't help thinking he'll think this was all whistling past the graveyard, fiddling while Rome burns, whatever metaphor you want... we're going over a cliff, and we're talking about minutiae.
9:19 pm - Obama's default is always to demagoguery. Romney wants to cut taxes for rich people and pay for them by cutting funds for education.
Obama now talking about the student loan program. Again, what would Mark Steyn say? (I think he would agree with me that we shouldn't have a federal student loan program to begin with. If we didn't have it, young people wouldn't be $1 trillion in debt.)
Romney getting tired? Maybe for a minute there when he went to Solyndra again...
Romney: "I don't just talk about it. I've been there..."
***
If Lehrer is still alive in four years, please please please don't let him moderate a debate.
***
9:25 pm - Premise of Lehrer question about gridlock assumes, as the MSM always does, that government could do more if Republicans could just compromise.
Obama: "I will take ideas from anyone..." Amazing balls on this guy.
***
9:26 pm - Obama pontificating. He's going to run through the time for closing statements....
***
9:27 pm - Obama's closing statement. "Four years ago, we were going through difficult times... my faith and confidence in the American future is undiminished." Anecdotes. "Closing loopholes for companies shipping jobs overseas..." He just keeps saying these things.
Obama talks about the "American people" like they are separate from him, alien.
"I would fight every single day... except when I'm golfing."
***
Romney's closing statement - Two paths leading in very different directions. If the President is re-elected, bad things ensue. If I'm re-elected I'll do the opposite.
Good ending. Lucky he was able to go last.
I'll be very interested to see what the pundits say... I think Romney did just great. I give him an A-.
***
My final word. Romney crossed the threshold of plausibility as a potential President. I think he will see a nice bump out of this debate.
The Regular Guy is Juiced for Tonight's Action!
For Shelby Miller's debut as a starter for the Cardinals in the 162nd game of the season, that is.
Remember the name. I think he's going to be a great one for the Cardinals for many years to come.
Remember the name. I think he's going to be a great one for the Cardinals for many years to come.
Announcement!
The Regular Guy will be drunkblogging the debate tonight, barring a sudden onset of apathy. My adoring fans, some of whom are pictured below, will be clamoring for my wisdom:
The Obama Video
I don't have much to say about the video of Obama posted last night by The Daily Caller and discussed on Hannity, which shows him addressing an audience of black ministers at Hampton University in 2007. I think it is newsworthy, in large part because it highlights the degree to which the mainstream media selectively "whitewashed" Obama in the 2008 election campaign by airbrushing out the less savory aspects of his political background, including Bill Ayers, Jeremiah Wright, and, here, a race-baiting speech. But it doesn't tell me much that I didn't already know:
1. Obama is our first "tribal President." By this I mean: I am certain that he thinks of himself as a "black American" rather than as an "American." I do not believe we have ever had until now a President who thought of himself as being defined by his ethnicity. It does not bode very well for the future of a multiracial country if this mode finds success.
2. Obama believes America is fundamentally evil due to its past treatment of blacks. On one level, I can understand this. On the other hand, America's treatment of slaves and blacks under Jim Crow has absolutely nothing to do with Obama, whose father was a black intellectual from Africa who never became a U.S. citizen, and whose mother was, as the libs say about Mitt Romney, "the whitest white woman" you can imagine.
3. Obama believes racism is still an important motivation of Americans who disagree with liberal policies. In this he has simply adopted the cliched and lazy intellectual categories of the modern academia, where every issue is viewed through the prisms of race, class and gender.
4. Finally, Obama's beliefs regarding America's racism are essentially fake, a persona he adopted in Ivy League colleges and law school to gain credibility as a spokesman for downtrodden minorities, despite the fact that he was raised by a white mother in Indonesia and Hawaii, suffered little or no racial discrimination, and had substantial privileges and opportunities (prep school and Ivy League educations) that most Americans, white or black, cannot hope to have. The faux cadences of the black preacher, the faux Southern black dialect, the faux religiosity from a man whom, I am certain, is an atheist... they are nothing new, and have frankly become a cliche of the left. That they are themselves racist -- that Obama thinks he has to talk down to a black audience -- will never be recognized by the mainstream media, but it's obvious to me.
So, like I said: nothing new. Maybe there are people out there who can be moved by seeing Obama in a new light, but those people are probably such low information voters that they won't have been watching Hannity last night, and certainly won't be reading the Daily Caller.
Anyway, if you haven't seen it, here's the link.
Shamelessly Exploiting Child Labor... More from the Regular Son
The Regular Son on proposed defense cuts that could occur automatically if the sequester goes into effect:
Okay, now this is my last political thought. Reading about Korea has really changed my attitude about defense spending. In 1950 our defense budget was 5% of its peak in 1945. Now, we'd just finished fighting the largest war in human history, so we can expect a drawdown, but Truman and the Democrats went famously overboard. People tend to simplify defense while complicating domestic issues. There was an obvious correlation between rapid cuts in spending and grossly inadequate preparation for any kind of armed conflict. Korea is often remembered as a war won by the Marines. The United States Marine Corps, however, did not enter the war until August 1950, when the 1st PMB and 5th RCT were attached to the 24th Infantry Division at the battles of the Naktong Bulge. It is not surprising that the Marines were hit hardest by the budget-hawking in Washington. In early battles fought by the 24th, which was the only division we were able to mobilize until late July, their equipment and weaponry were extremely ineffectual against the Soviet armor. This was largely because the antitank weapons we had were obsolete. Only the Air Force was ready in any significant capacity. Our transportation was sluggish, our logistics were weak, and our supplies were a joke. Even in peacetime the effects of the cuts were evident in our extremely lax training. People look at our military and how huge it is and think that a few cuts won't harm it. Korea is evidence of the danger of excessive and wanton spending cuts.If you got that as an answer to an essay question in college history class, it would get a pretty high grade. Not bad for a high school sophomore.
The Regular Son is in High Dudgeon over Benghazi-gate!
Email from the Regular Son, age 15, over lunch at the local Jesuit HS:
One more political thought: Do you think most Americans could tell you why Nixon was impeached? Do you think they could tell you what Watergate really was? I highly doubt it. Watergate was a third-rate burglary and a botched, messy public relations affair. Dick Nixon was crucified by the MSM and essentially bullied out of office.
Fast forward to 2012: The most transparent administration in history just allowed a United States embassy in a red-hot Middle Eastern country to be burned to the ground and our ambassador to be murdered in cold blood. Forget Obama's tepid response to this outrage and his continual appeasement of radical Islam; the administration refused to even refer to it as an act of terror until weeks after the fact. Never mind that they had intelligence telling them that it was clearly a terrorist attack; anyone who doesn't have his head buried in the sand can see it was. It was a cover-up even more egregious than Nixon's. Couple that with this new thread about Ambassador Stevens' repeated pleas for increased security and writing in his diary that he feared for his life, and the Islamists didn't kill Stevens. The Obama administration did. There ought to be impeachment proceedings in the House of Representatives as we speak.
How to Skew a Poll - A Primer from NPR
Today NPR has a poll out showing Obama leading Romney by seven points. Here's how they managed to do it:
1. They over-sampled women, using a pool of 53% women.
2. They over-sampled union households, using a pool with 17% union households (when the actual figure is something like 12%).
3. They over-sampled people with advanced degrees (urban elites who skew Democratic), using a pool with 14% when the real total is closer to 10%.
4. And, of course, they oversampled Democrats, using a sample that is D+7.
Party affiliation can change over time, and I understand the argument that you shouldn't "correct" your pool to fit an assumption about party identification. But the number of people with advanced degrees or the number of households with union members or the number of women don't change much over time, and to the extent that those are indicators of party affiliation, if you take too many female teacher's union members with master's degrees or female AFSCME members with master's degrees in social engineering or human resource management or whatever it is that government bureaucrats do... well, pretty obviously you are going to end up with more Dems.
1. They over-sampled women, using a pool of 53% women.
2. They over-sampled union households, using a pool with 17% union households (when the actual figure is something like 12%).
3. They over-sampled people with advanced degrees (urban elites who skew Democratic), using a pool with 14% when the real total is closer to 10%.
4. And, of course, they oversampled Democrats, using a sample that is D+7.
Party affiliation can change over time, and I understand the argument that you shouldn't "correct" your pool to fit an assumption about party identification. But the number of people with advanced degrees or the number of households with union members or the number of women don't change much over time, and to the extent that those are indicators of party affiliation, if you take too many female teacher's union members with master's degrees or female AFSCME members with master's degrees in social engineering or human resource management or whatever it is that government bureaucrats do... well, pretty obviously you are going to end up with more Dems.
Another Reason Why the Big Democratic Skews in Polls Are Probably Wrong
A survey by the Guardian shows that Democratic voter registration in swing states is way down from 2008, signalling that Democratic enthusiasm for Obama's re-election has plummeted:
Tell me again why I should buy those polls that show D+12 in Ohio, or D+11 or D+9 or D+7 nationally? I think we're being played by the MSM.
The biggest decline among registered voters within the surveyed swing states was in Florida. Between January and July this year, the state added 224,750 voters – 82,638 fewer than the same period in 2008. A similar comparison of the first seven months of 2012 and 2008 shows a dip in voter registrations of 25,486 in Iowa, 23,009 in Virginia, 19,199 in Nevada and 9,566 in Colorado.
The declines look particularly dramatic on the Democratic side, largely as a reflection of how well the Obama campaign did in mobilising new voters in its first run on the presidency in 2008. This year it has clearly struggled to repeat the performance.
In Iowa, Democrats registered 69,301 voters between January and August 2008, but over the same period this year the party's voter roll dropped by more than 45,000 as a result of the voting rolls being purged. Republicans in Iowa by contrast held relatively steady – they put on 7,515 voters in the first eight months of 2008 and 5,671 this year....
In 2008, Obama's Florida registration efforts played a crucial role in securing him the state, and with it the presidency. That year, the Democrats registered a thumping 196,490 voters while Republicans signed up just 54,394.
Yet in 2012, Democrats have only mustered about a quarter of their huge successes last time round: 50,909 voters. Republicans have also held steady in this state with 56,154 new registrants this year compared to 54,394 in 2008.
Tell me again why I should buy those polls that show D+12 in Ohio, or D+11 or D+9 or D+7 nationally? I think we're being played by the MSM.
Not Bad, But Not Enough
Joe Biden is an embarrassment. But he's an embarrassment who is completely "priced in" to a vote for or against Obama. I don't think any new gaffe by Biden has much legs, because no one expects coherence or intelligence from Biden anymore (if they ever did).
That being said, this is not a bad ad from the Romney campaign, based on Biden's comment yesterday that "the middle class has been buried the last four years":
That being said, this is not a bad ad from the Romney campaign, based on Biden's comment yesterday that "the middle class has been buried the last four years":
Predictions for Tonight I - Obama Will Lie
One thing we can be sure of that will happen tonight in the Presidential debate is that Obama will lie. He will lie about the federal debt ("I inherited it"), he will lie about the economy ("we've created 5 million jobs"), he will lie about Fast and Furious ("it was started under Bush"), etc., etc. He will lie because he is a man who does not know the truth, and does not even believe in the concept of the truth. He believes in manipulating words to create demagogic effects (a) because he's a post-modern Marxist at his core, a la Saul Alinsky; and (b) because he's a narcissist who lives for the moment of adulation when people tell him what a great speaker he is.
I don't know if Romney will handle Obama's lies very well. Romney is a moral man who believes in God and believes in the truth. He's also a man who spent his life in business. As much as the businessman has been demonized in popular culture, the reality is that one thing you learn in business (and in the actual practice of law as opposed to the bullshit Obama did as a community organizer and "law professor") is that you can't lie. If you lie, you lose, because people in business have to trust you (just like the one thing you have to always maintain in court is your credibility in front of the judge and the jury). So he's not used to baldface liars, and particularly ones as slippery as Obama.
I also expect the media to go deeply in the tank for Obama in spinning his performance. When he lies, and Romney calls him on it, the media spin will be about how deftly Obama parried Romney's attacks, and how Romney didn't really lay a glove on him. They will talk about style rather than substance, in short.
This is a 2,000 plus year-old argument: Plato against the Sophists. Rhetoric against Truth.
I'm afraid we live in a world where Truth matters less and less.
I don't know if Romney will handle Obama's lies very well. Romney is a moral man who believes in God and believes in the truth. He's also a man who spent his life in business. As much as the businessman has been demonized in popular culture, the reality is that one thing you learn in business (and in the actual practice of law as opposed to the bullshit Obama did as a community organizer and "law professor") is that you can't lie. If you lie, you lose, because people in business have to trust you (just like the one thing you have to always maintain in court is your credibility in front of the judge and the jury). So he's not used to baldface liars, and particularly ones as slippery as Obama.
I also expect the media to go deeply in the tank for Obama in spinning his performance. When he lies, and Romney calls him on it, the media spin will be about how deftly Obama parried Romney's attacks, and how Romney didn't really lay a glove on him. They will talk about style rather than substance, in short.
This is a 2,000 plus year-old argument: Plato against the Sophists. Rhetoric against Truth.
I'm afraid we live in a world where Truth matters less and less.
Girl of the Day - Game of Thrones Edition (Lena Headey)
Game of Thrones, somewhat surprisingly, became one of the Regular Guy's favorite shows over the summer. Frankly, I generally have always had an aversion to the "dungeons and dragons" fantasy genre, but the show ended up being very compelling. Lena Headey plays the evilest queen imaginable:
She turns 39 today. In real life, she looks only a little less scary, but a lot hotter:
She turns 39 today. In real life, she looks only a little less scary, but a lot hotter:
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
More on the Unfolding Libya Scandal
I'm not sure even the mainstream media can sit on a scandal this big for five weeks until election. Apparently, according to the Associated Press, the consultate in Benghazi repeatedly asked the Obama Administration for more security in the months prior to the September 11th attack, and were denied:
Despite two explosions and dozens of other security threats, U.S. officials in Washington turned down repeated pleas from American diplomats in Libya to increase security at the U.S. consulate in Benghazi where the U.S. ambassador was killed, Republican leaders of a House committee asserted Tuesday.In a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, Chairman Darrell Issa and Rep. Jason Chaffetz of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee said their information came from "individuals with direct knowledge of events in Libya."Issa, R-Calif. and Chaffetz, R-Utah said the Sept. 11 attack in Benghazi that killed Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans was the latest in a long line of attacks on Western diplomats and officials in Libya in the months before Sept. 11.The letter listed 13 incidents, but Chaffetz said in an interview there were more than 50. Two of them involved explosive devices: a June 6 blast that blew a hole in the security perimeter. The explosion was described to the committee as "big enough for forty men to go through"; and an April 6 incident where two Libyans who were fired by a security contactor threw a small explosive device over the consulate fence."A number of people felt helpless in pushing back" against the decision not to increase security and "were pleading with them to reconsider," Chaffetz said. He added that frustrated whistleblowers were so upset with the decision that they were anxious to speak with the committee.
That last sentence has to scare the Obama campaign. A lot.
Don't Be Afraid of Islamists, Be Afraid of Actuaries
When you think of the "national debt" you think of the $16 trillion we owe in government borrowing. We don't think of the unfunded liabilities of the future, all of which depend on rosy scenarios concocted by government actuaries about future economic growth, etc. If that growth doesn't materialize, everything we think we know about our ability to pay for the promises we've made goes out the window. I mean Medicare and Social Security primarily, but there's also the sticky wicket of all the promises we've made to our government employees.
Consider these facts from an article in Pensions and Investments:
1.The average funding ratio of the largest 100 public pension plans is 73.64%.
2. Those plans have roughly $2.72 trillion in assets.
3. The unfunded liability of those plans is approximately $793 billion. That's money we owe to government employee retirees in the future that we don't have now.
4. But (and here's the big "but"), the plans have an average actuarial investment return assumption of 7.84%. That means that the plans assume that they are going to average an investment return of nearly 8% a year, every year, for the 50-60 years they'll need to be in existence to fund promised benefits for current employees.
5. But the same plans over the past ten years have achieved an actual average investment return of only 5.6%.
6. And the same plans in 2011 received "only" $111 billion in employee and employer contributions -- tax dollars that go nominally to the employees as wages or the employer, but really go straight into the pension funds. But they spent $182 billion in benefits to retirees! They are paying out more than then are bringing in by a whopping $70 billion a year. So they are entirely dependent on investment returns to make up the difference. But the returns aren't making up the difference and haven't for at least the past 12 years.
7. More importantly, the same plans all calculate -- because this is the way actuaries do it -- their liabilities for future benefit payments owed to retirees by discounting those future benefits back to the present using the investment return assumption. So a payment due twenty years from now is discounted back to present value at 8% or so. If they used a lower investment return assumption/discount rate, say, 5.5%, i.e., something closer to what the actual returns have been for the past decade, that would add enormously to the present value of that future payment, and hence add to the plans' liabilities.
8. A rule of thumb among actuaries is that 100 basis points in a discount rate changes liablities by about 10%. So 250 basis points, from 8% to 5.5%, might add 25% to these plans' liabilities.
9. Which means that the unfunded liabilities of $793 billion could actually be closer to $1.5 trillion. That's 10% of the current national debt and more than a year of the current federal deficit!
10. Yet very very very few people even know about this "debt."
And, of course, this is just the "top 100" plans. The debt is actually much, much larger when you add in all public employee plans.
Not very rosy of a scenario, is it?
Consider these facts from an article in Pensions and Investments:
1.The average funding ratio of the largest 100 public pension plans is 73.64%.
2. Those plans have roughly $2.72 trillion in assets.
3. The unfunded liability of those plans is approximately $793 billion. That's money we owe to government employee retirees in the future that we don't have now.
4. But (and here's the big "but"), the plans have an average actuarial investment return assumption of 7.84%. That means that the plans assume that they are going to average an investment return of nearly 8% a year, every year, for the 50-60 years they'll need to be in existence to fund promised benefits for current employees.
5. But the same plans over the past ten years have achieved an actual average investment return of only 5.6%.
6. And the same plans in 2011 received "only" $111 billion in employee and employer contributions -- tax dollars that go nominally to the employees as wages or the employer, but really go straight into the pension funds. But they spent $182 billion in benefits to retirees! They are paying out more than then are bringing in by a whopping $70 billion a year. So they are entirely dependent on investment returns to make up the difference. But the returns aren't making up the difference and haven't for at least the past 12 years.
7. More importantly, the same plans all calculate -- because this is the way actuaries do it -- their liabilities for future benefit payments owed to retirees by discounting those future benefits back to the present using the investment return assumption. So a payment due twenty years from now is discounted back to present value at 8% or so. If they used a lower investment return assumption/discount rate, say, 5.5%, i.e., something closer to what the actual returns have been for the past decade, that would add enormously to the present value of that future payment, and hence add to the plans' liabilities.
8. A rule of thumb among actuaries is that 100 basis points in a discount rate changes liablities by about 10%. So 250 basis points, from 8% to 5.5%, might add 25% to these plans' liabilities.
9. Which means that the unfunded liabilities of $793 billion could actually be closer to $1.5 trillion. That's 10% of the current national debt and more than a year of the current federal deficit!
10. Yet very very very few people even know about this "debt."
And, of course, this is just the "top 100" plans. The debt is actually much, much larger when you add in all public employee plans.
Not very rosy of a scenario, is it?
The Choice of Two Futures
Hugh Hewitt lays out the stakes of the election in a more hopeful way than most:
What matters is the two paths the electorate sees coming out of November. The president's path dips immediately into another awful recession, and is full of scandals exploding, especially Fast & Furious, as well as disappointmments from an Obamacare that is so screwed up that it will have to be sliced up before the 2014 vote destroys everyone left who voted for this IPAB-led idiocy. Grinding unemployment and retreat from the world as massive defense cuts reduce our Navy to 40% of Reagan's, and Israel is left to its own devices: That's Obama's path.
Romney's is, hopefully, a return to '80s growth and an end to the incessant "1%-99%" nonsense. The longest period of class warfare in the U.S. will abruptly end, and the country will rather quickly spring back into robust growth by lopping off the manacles of Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, and the anti-energy policies of EPA and the Department of Interior. The Navy will go up by 5 ships a year for Romney's first four years and five ships more a year in a second term if he wins one. The defense budget will stabilize and Israel will know, again, that the U.S. is 100% behind it. That's Romney's path.
All the tin horses and tin ears of the MSM chattering at each other and into cameras projecting onto screens that fewer and fewer people watch won't matter much if at all to the making of this choice.
Girl of the Day - Homeland is Back! (Morena Baccarin)
Homeland, the best show on TV, was back on Sunday, along with maybe the best actress working today (Claire Danes) and, for added viewing pleasure, maybe the best-looking actress working today too, Morena Baccarin, who plays the long-suffering wife of Damian Lewis' Marine turned terrorist turned Congressman turned terrorist again (maybe):
A Headline You Won't See in American Newspapers... Yet
But the story is starting to get out. Here's the headline from the London Telegraph:
That sort of thing can't make the Obama campaign very happy five weeks before the election. Can they hold their fingers in the dyke long enough to keep Fast and Furious and Libya from cascading out before November 6th?
Did the White House order a cover-up over the murder of Libya's US Ambassador?
That sort of thing can't make the Obama campaign very happy five weeks before the election. Can they hold their fingers in the dyke long enough to keep Fast and Furious and Libya from cascading out before November 6th?
What If Bush Were Still President?
Walter Russell Mead nails it:
Today is one of those days in which we are particularly grateful that George W. Bush is no longer the president of the United States..
The news from Afghanistan is grim. With the latest round of deaths, we pass a milestone: 2,000 US combatants have died in what is now the longest war in American history. The milestone has been reached just as the surge in troops has come to an end without achieving the goals of pacifying the country or even launching peace talks with the Taliban. Our Afghan “allies” remain as corrupt and ineffectual as ever, with the added wrinkle that the most dangerous place in Afghanistan for US troops these days seems to be the neighborhood of US-armed and trained Afghan forces, who are shooting and blowing up their nominal allies faster than the Taliban can do it.
This is all bad news and very disturbing, but there is a crumb of comfort to be had. Because these failures happened on President Obama’s watch, the mainstream press isn’t particularly interested in relentless, non-stop scrutiny of the unpleasant news. If George W. Bush were president now, and had ordered the surge and was responsible for the strategic decisions taken and not taken in Afghanistan over the last four years, the mainstream press would be rubbing our noses in his miserable failures and inexcusable blunders 24/7. The New York Times and the Washington Post would be treating us to pictures of every fallen soldier. The PBS Newshour would feature nightly post-mortems on “America’s failed strategies in the Afghan War” and every arm-chair strategist in America would be filling the op-ed pages with the brilliant 20/20 hindsight ideas that our pathetic, clueless, failed president was too dumb and too cocky to have had
Could It Be That Romney Actually Knows What He's Doing?
The media was briefly enamored with Newt Gingrich, who had taken a lead in Republican primary polls. Romney took him down with ease. Same with Rick Santorum. Romney took him apart. Could it be that Romney -- who has never really failed in anything in his adult life, working at the highest levels of business and government -- might actually know what he's doing?
Here's a small detail, but telling. Colorado is a key swing state. Colorado is also the site of Wednesday night's Presidential primary. Colorado is also insane about the Denver Broncos, and the most popular Bronco ever is John Elway. So this sort of attention to detail is important:
Does that mean Romney will win Colorado? Maybe not. But that's the sort of thing that could sway a lot of low-information, independent, moderate voters in an important state. It might be that he actually does know what he's doing.
Here's a small detail, but telling. Colorado is a key swing state. Colorado is also the site of Wednesday night's Presidential primary. Colorado is also insane about the Denver Broncos, and the most popular Bronco ever is John Elway. So this sort of attention to detail is important:
Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway endorsed Mitt Romney ahead of Wednesday's presidential debate in Colorado.
“Governor Romney is a proven leader with the experience and background to turn around our struggling economy,” Elway said in a statement. “In these tough economic times, we need a president who understands how to get America working again – by standing on the side of taxpayers and small-business owners who do the real job creating. I am endorsing Governor Romney and Congressman Ryan for President and Vice President because I know having the courage to make decisions and tackle challenges is what leads to results and real change. America needs a comeback team – Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are that team.”
Does that mean Romney will win Colorado? Maybe not. But that's the sort of thing that could sway a lot of low-information, independent, moderate voters in an important state. It might be that he actually does know what he's doing.
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