"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

RoY Alert - Shelby Miller

Shelby Miller is berry berry good.   My prediction is that he wins the National League rookie-of-the-year this year.   Right now he's 3-1 in four starts with a 2.16 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 25 innings.    Wow!

To give points of comparison, in 1967 at age 22 (Miller's age), Tom Seaver won the RoY, going 16-13 with 170 strikeouts in 251 innings and with a 2.76 ERA.   Twenty years later in 1987, Dwight Gooden was 22 and went 15-7 with 148 Ks in 179 innings and a 3.21 ERA.  

If Miller gets 32 starts he's on pace for 24-8 with 208 Ks in 200 innings.  

I'm just sayin'.


On the other hand, by the time Gooden was 22, he had already won the RoY (at 19) and the Cy Young (at 20).   Here's Gooden's stats in that 20 year-old season:

24 wins, 4 losses
1.53 ERA
16 complete games
8 shutouts
268 Ks in 276 innings!!

You will never ever ever see a line like that for a 20 year-old pitcher.   Not ever.   They are too valuable... witness what happened with Strasburg last year.   No one would let a 20 year-old arm go 276 innings.  

Gooden was a sad story.   He had 91 victories, a RoY, a Cy Young, and four All-Star appearances before he turned 24.   If he had pitched another 15 years and averaged, say, 16 victories a year, he would have ended up with 330+ and been a sure-fire Hall of Famer.  A lot of the blame goes to his own choices -- drugs, alcohol, the fast life.   But you have to wonder whether too much success too soon took a toll on both his character and his arm.  

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