"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Monday, November 5, 2012

The Last Gasp of Skewed Polling

CNN's presidential poll today has a dead heat, 49-49, between Romney and Obama.   But the sample they use has 11 percent more Democrats, 41-30.   And the poll also shows Romney with a commanding 22 point lead among independents.

Mark it down.   If Romney wins independents at all, much less by 22 points, he will win the Presidency.   There is literally no universe where Democrat turnout will be 11 points higher than Republican turnout.  

Indeed, Gallup's latest poll actually shows Republican turnout higher than Democrats.   If that happens, it's a Reaganesque wave election.  

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