"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Thursday, June 2, 2011

Pujols and The Decline Phase of Hitters Redux

I have in the past on this blog commented, with some sadness, that the Cardinals should not re-sign Albert Pujols to a long-term deal after this year, as he has clearly started his "decline phase."   Here is a chart from the blog "Beyond the Box Score" on "runs above average" that summarizes the data on hitters through their career that clearly shows that betting on Pujols to remain, well, Pujols from age 32 to 41 (the span of the new 10-year deal he is seeking) would be a loser's bet.

Not good.   Next year's Cardinals' lineup for my money would have Allan Craig at 1st Base and Jon Jay in Right Field, both of who can be had for near the minimum.   Then I'd take the extra $20 million or so we'd save by not signing Pujols and get myself a major league starting pitcher and a major league shortstop with some pop.   But I wouldn't pay Pujols $25-30 million a year for 10 years.   No way.   Sorry, Albert.  

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