Preference cascade? Here it comes.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Romney 50, Obama 46 in Rasmussen!
Alert, alert, alert. Romney is up by four in the latest Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll! And up five points in the swing-state tracking!
Preference cascade? Here it comes.
Preference cascade? Here it comes.
Romney Channels Reagan
Or at least that is what he seemed to be doing in his upbeat closing statement last night (with key words highlighted):
MR. ROMNEY: Thank you, Bob, Mr. President, folks at Lynn University — good to be with you. I'm optimistic about the future. I'm excited about our prospects as a nation. I want to see peace. I want to see growing peace in this country, it's our objective. We have an opportunity to have real leadership. America's going to have that kind of leadership and continue to promote principles of peace that'll make a world the safer place and make people in this country more confident that their future is secure.
I also want to make sure that we get this economy going. And there are two very different paths the country can take. One is a path represented by the president, which, at the end of four years, would mean we'd have $20 trillion in debt, heading towards Greece. I'll get us on track to a balanced budget. The president's path will mean continuing declining in take-home pay. I want to make sure our take-home pay turns around and starts to grow. The president's path means 20 million people out of work struggling for a good job. I'll get people back to work with 12 million new jobs. I'm going to make sure that we get people off of food stamps not by cutting the program but by getting them good jobs.
America's going to come back. And for that to happen, we're going to have to have a president who can work across the aisle. I was in a state where my legislature was 87 percent Democrat. I learned how to get along on the other side of the aisle. We've got to do that in Washington. Washington is broken. I know what it takes to get this country back. And we'll work with good Democrats and good Republicans to do that.
This nation is the hope of the earth. We've been blessed by having a nation that's free and prosperous thanks to the contributions of the Greatest Generation. They've held a torch for the world to see, the torch of freedom and hope and opportunity. Now it's our turn to take that torch. I'm convinced we'll do it. We need strong leadership. I'd like to be that leader, with your support. I'll work with you. I'll lead you in an open and honest way. And I ask for your vote. I'd like to be the next president of the United States to support and help this great nation, and to make sure that we all together maintain America as the hope of the earth. Thank you so much.
Optimistic.
Future.
Peace.
Opportunity.
Leadership.
Hope.
This was a very carefully crafted closing argument in the vein of Reagan that Romney delivered very well. He asked for people's votes and for the people who watched all three debates, I think he's going to get most of them and be our next President.
MR. ROMNEY: Thank you, Bob, Mr. President, folks at Lynn University — good to be with you. I'm optimistic about the future. I'm excited about our prospects as a nation. I want to see peace. I want to see growing peace in this country, it's our objective. We have an opportunity to have real leadership. America's going to have that kind of leadership and continue to promote principles of peace that'll make a world the safer place and make people in this country more confident that their future is secure.
I also want to make sure that we get this economy going. And there are two very different paths the country can take. One is a path represented by the president, which, at the end of four years, would mean we'd have $20 trillion in debt, heading towards Greece. I'll get us on track to a balanced budget. The president's path will mean continuing declining in take-home pay. I want to make sure our take-home pay turns around and starts to grow. The president's path means 20 million people out of work struggling for a good job. I'll get people back to work with 12 million new jobs. I'm going to make sure that we get people off of food stamps not by cutting the program but by getting them good jobs.
America's going to come back. And for that to happen, we're going to have to have a president who can work across the aisle. I was in a state where my legislature was 87 percent Democrat. I learned how to get along on the other side of the aisle. We've got to do that in Washington. Washington is broken. I know what it takes to get this country back. And we'll work with good Democrats and good Republicans to do that.
This nation is the hope of the earth. We've been blessed by having a nation that's free and prosperous thanks to the contributions of the Greatest Generation. They've held a torch for the world to see, the torch of freedom and hope and opportunity. Now it's our turn to take that torch. I'm convinced we'll do it. We need strong leadership. I'd like to be that leader, with your support. I'll work with you. I'll lead you in an open and honest way. And I ask for your vote. I'd like to be the next president of the United States to support and help this great nation, and to make sure that we all together maintain America as the hope of the earth. Thank you so much.
Optimistic.
Future.
Peace.
Opportunity.
Leadership.
Hope.
This was a very carefully crafted closing argument in the vein of Reagan that Romney delivered very well. He asked for people's votes and for the people who watched all three debates, I think he's going to get most of them and be our next President.
Horses and Bayonets
The left is all atwitter about President Obama's snarkiest moment from last night's debate:
Mitt Romney attacked Barack Obama in Monday's debate on what the Republican senses is a weakening military, charging that our navy is smaller now "than at any time since 1917." But the president turned out to have plenty of ordnance. "Governor, we also have fewer horses and bayonets," Obama answered sarcastically. "The nature of our military has changed. We have these things called aircraft carriers where planes land on them. We have ships that go under water: nuclear submarines. The question is not a game of 'Battleship' where we're counting ships."
The problem for Obama is, while his know-nothing lefty pals think this snark was just swell, nearly everything about it is wrong:
- Special Forces soldiers famously rode on horseback in Afghanistan in the weeks after 9/11 as they took down the Taliban. This was the subject of probably the biggest best seller to come out of the Afghanistan War, Horse Soldiers by Doug Stanton, which is being made into a movie by Jerry Bruckheimer in Hollywood. There is even a monument to the horse soldiers of Afghanistan at Ground Zero in Manhattan, which was just unveiled.
- U.S. Marines and Army infantry still all are trained in the use of bayonets:
In 2004, with ammunition running low, a British unit launched a bayonet charge toward a trench outside of Basra, Iraq, where some 100 members of the Mahdi Army militia were staging an attack. The British soldiers later said that though some of the insurgents were wounded in the bayonet charge itself, others were simply terrified into surrender.
Instilling such terror is at the heart of the philosophical argument for keeping bayonet training, historians say.
“Traditionally in the 20th century – certainly after World War I – bayonet training was basically designed to develop in soldiers aggressiveness, courage, and preparation for close combat,” says Richard Kohn, professor of military history at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
- Nor are his converse propositions true. Aircraft carriers and submarines are not uniquely "modern" weapons. The first U.S. Navy aircraft carrier, the Langley, was commissioned in 1922. And submarines, as any schoolboy knows, played a role as early as the Civil War (hey, Mr. Obama, did they teach you about the Monitor and the Merrimack in your grade school in Indonesia?).
The Navy’s FY2013 30-year (FY2013-FY2042) shipbuilding plan, which was submitted to Congress on March 28, 2012 (more than a month after the submission of the FY2013 budget on February 13, 2012), does not include enough ships to fully support all elements of the Navy’s 310-316 ship goal over the long run. The Navy projects that the fleet would remain below 310 ships during the entire 30-year period, and experience shortfalls at various points in ballistic missile submarines, cruisers-destroyers, attack submarines, and amphibious ships.
Snark does not equate to Presidential leadership, particularly on matters of national security.
Monday, October 22, 2012
Drunkblogging the Debate IV - Couldn't They Have Rescheduled?
I mean seriously, we've got Game 7 of the NLCS with the Cardinals! Can't Romney and Obama do their thing tomorrow? Ah, well, I'll try to keep track of both...
8:04 pm - Is Obama's foreign policy in the Middle East unraveling? Weird way to frame the issue around the way Romney phrased his criticism...
Romney is somewhat slow-starting... "need a comprehensive strategy"... he got a hanging curve for the first question from Schieffer, and he whiffed on it.
Obama... "I'm commander in chief... we decimated al Qaeda leadership... in Libya we made sure that our people were safe (huh?), we liberated a country"... Obama attacking Romney from the outset.
Romney... weak so far. Had an opportunity to hit Obama on Libya and instead is talking about "gender equality." What? Why?
I'm not happy so far... Romney seems somewhat incoherent and all over the map. It's like he read a memo saying he should be namby-pamby...
Obama hitting Romney hard on wanting to go back to the foreign policy of the 1980s... Obama doing well so far. "I know you haven't been in a position to actually execute foreign policy... but you've always been wrong in what you've said." Obama doing well, very strong...
I think Obama is doing really well, but I don't know whether being nasty to Romney will help him with voters.
***
Romney getting better on Iraq "status of forces" agreement...
Obama is going to pull the "I'm the commander of chief" card over and over again... Obama is much better prepared here.
Obama saying Israel is our friend, even though everything he does says the opposite...
***
8:16 pm - Turning to Syria... are we going to get anything else on Libya?
***
I can't believe I'm saying this, but we are 21 minutes into the debate and I think Romney is doing badly and Obama is doing well. I hope other people are seeing this differently... I think Romney also looks pretty old tonight... might be the lighting.
Schieffer doing well so far as the moderator...
***
8:23 pm - I take it back... Schieffer asks Obama a soft-ball: "Do you have regrets about saying at a crucial time that "Mubarek must go..."? Holy shit, allows him to play the hero in bringing about "democracy"... meaning sharia law.
***
8:29 pm - Romney making argument that economic growth is important for strength abroad.
8:34 pm - Romney again hitting on economy, even if he's wedging it into a foreign policy debate.
Obama basically seems like he's been coached to say something nasty about Romney in every answer.
***
Obama being nasty, interrupting Romney on education... but why are we talking about this... other than to appeal to independents?
***
I think Obama has internal polling saying he's losing and needs to be nasty to fire up his base. I think Romney has internal polling saying he's winning and needs to be nice to reach independents.
***
I'm actually kind of offended that they aren't focused on foreign policy...
***
Obama being snide... is this playing? Maybe... the pundits will like it and will say he's winning this debate, probably by a lot.
***
8:42 pm - Romney good on this: defense is highest priority. We have smallest Navy, smallest Air Force ever...
Obama says sequestration isn't going to happen... Obama snide about number of ships... "not a game of Battleship"... we don't have as many horses as we had in 1916 either...
But didn't the Navy ask for more ships?
***
Again, Obama is being nasty, snide, snarky... not Presidential in my view...
***
Schieffer: "Is an attack on Israel an attack on the U.S.?"
Obama doesn't answer directly... says only "we will stand with Israel."
Crippling sanctions on Iran, their economy in a shambles... we've offered Iran a choice, they can take the diplomatic route...
"I've sent young men and women into harm's way..."
Romney OK on this: "We will stand with Israel. We have Israel's back, not just culturally and diplomatically, but militarily."
Romney would tighten sanctions...
Weirdly, I wonder if Romney is doing OK tonight because he's not disagreeing with Obama too much...
***
Schieffer does OK sometimes: asks President straight out whether reports are true that we are going to have talks with Iran. President says reports aren't true.
Obama literally can't say anything about Romney without being a douchebag... again, I wonder if this plays with independents, moderates, women, etc. It plays with the 20-somethings on The Daily Kos, but I wonder if it plays with a 45 year old mother of three in a suburb of Cleveland.
That being said... this is easily Obama's best performance in the debates.
***
Romney finally hits Obama on the "apology tour"... Obama says "nothing is true." I never apologized for America... wow, he'll say anything.
When I came into office, the world was divided and Iran was resurgent; now Iran is at its weakest in many years.
Romney: "Iran is four years closer to having a nuclear weapon... here's why I said you went on an apology tour... you went to Egypt and said America had dictated to the region in the past and wouldn't do it anymore... "
Obama is really really sharp tonight, albeit a douchebag...
***
Schieffer: "What would you do if Netanyahu said our planes are airborne going to hit Iran?"
Romney: "wouldnt' happen, we would have been consulted given my relationship with him"
***
Does Obama's argument that he's brought such peace and harmony around the world really ring true to people?
Obama is trying to disqualify Romney as commander in chief... he's being strong, but I don't think he can disqualify Romney, not when his own foreign policy has been so bad...
We killed Osama... I was at Ground Zero... little girl haunted by 9/11... by finally getting bin Laden that brought closure to the little girl.
Obama doing well... Schieffer cuts off Romney. Ouch!
Romney basically buying into Afghanistan policy. Some semi-smart things about Pakistan...
Obama simply cannot mention the fact that Bush's surge in Iraq is what enabled us to get out of that war.... essentially taking credit for end of Iraq War. Asshat.
***
Romney not attacking Obama very much; Obama constantly attacking Romney. Different goals: Romney needs to show he's qualified, Obama needs to try to show that Romney is disqualified.
***
9:12 pm - Romney good here... Iran closer to a bomb, Middle East in tumult, al Qaeda not on the run, Israel-Palestine not closer to peace...
Obama Freudian slip: "This nation, Me.. sided with protesters in Tunisia."
***
Romney doing better toward the end... have people tuned out by now? Lucky for the GOP that the Cards-Giants game is such a snoozer.
Romney on China pretty good here... why did he do so badly on Libya at the beginning? Is it because it's just so confusing that he doesn't really get it either? Is he confident that the media won't help him? Did he get cowed by the last debate?
***
9:22 pm - Obama nasty: "you are familiar with shipping jobs overseas..." Kos Kids will love this... will independent voters?
This is a really frustrating debate, because Obama keeps being snarky, and I think it's unpresidential, but it may be that we've become a country that thinks in reality-TV terms, and will reward snark.
9:24 pm - Romney on auto industry "managed bankruptcy"... I am a son of Detroit, my father was an auto company executive...
***
9:26 pm - Obama... "in order for us to be competitive... we have to make smart choices... we can't go back to the same policies that got us into the problem..."
9:27 pm - Romney using opportunity to hit Obama on economy again... good...
Romney gets the last word!
Obama: "Now you've got a choice... we've made real progress from policies that gave us two wars, record deficits, and high unemployment... we'll bring manufacturing jobs back to our shows, we'll have the best education system in the world... energy sources of the future... as commander in chief, I will maintain the strongest military of the world... but after a decade of wars, we need to do some nation building at home... I will fight for your families, and I will work every single day to make sure..." Blah, blah, blah.
Romney: peace, confidence, optimism... pivots to economy: President's path means people out of work, Romney will get people off of food stamps by getting them jobs... we will have to have a President who can work across the aisle... we need strong leadership... America as the hope of the earth...
Great closing by Romney!!!
***
Obama won the battle but lost the war. I think he did a better job at debating, but a worse job at being Presidential. I think he didn't succeed in disqualifying Romney, and if Romney is not disqualified, Romney wins.
8:04 pm - Is Obama's foreign policy in the Middle East unraveling? Weird way to frame the issue around the way Romney phrased his criticism...
Romney is somewhat slow-starting... "need a comprehensive strategy"... he got a hanging curve for the first question from Schieffer, and he whiffed on it.
Obama... "I'm commander in chief... we decimated al Qaeda leadership... in Libya we made sure that our people were safe (huh?), we liberated a country"... Obama attacking Romney from the outset.
Romney... weak so far. Had an opportunity to hit Obama on Libya and instead is talking about "gender equality." What? Why?
I'm not happy so far... Romney seems somewhat incoherent and all over the map. It's like he read a memo saying he should be namby-pamby...
Obama hitting Romney hard on wanting to go back to the foreign policy of the 1980s... Obama doing well so far. "I know you haven't been in a position to actually execute foreign policy... but you've always been wrong in what you've said." Obama doing well, very strong...
I think Obama is doing really well, but I don't know whether being nasty to Romney will help him with voters.
***
Romney getting better on Iraq "status of forces" agreement...
Obama is going to pull the "I'm the commander of chief" card over and over again... Obama is much better prepared here.
Obama saying Israel is our friend, even though everything he does says the opposite...
***
8:16 pm - Turning to Syria... are we going to get anything else on Libya?
***
I can't believe I'm saying this, but we are 21 minutes into the debate and I think Romney is doing badly and Obama is doing well. I hope other people are seeing this differently... I think Romney also looks pretty old tonight... might be the lighting.
Schieffer doing well so far as the moderator...
***
8:23 pm - I take it back... Schieffer asks Obama a soft-ball: "Do you have regrets about saying at a crucial time that "Mubarek must go..."? Holy shit, allows him to play the hero in bringing about "democracy"... meaning sharia law.
***
8:29 pm - Romney making argument that economic growth is important for strength abroad.
8:34 pm - Romney again hitting on economy, even if he's wedging it into a foreign policy debate.
Obama basically seems like he's been coached to say something nasty about Romney in every answer.
***
Obama being nasty, interrupting Romney on education... but why are we talking about this... other than to appeal to independents?
***
I think Obama has internal polling saying he's losing and needs to be nasty to fire up his base. I think Romney has internal polling saying he's winning and needs to be nice to reach independents.
***
I'm actually kind of offended that they aren't focused on foreign policy...
***
Obama being snide... is this playing? Maybe... the pundits will like it and will say he's winning this debate, probably by a lot.
***
8:42 pm - Romney good on this: defense is highest priority. We have smallest Navy, smallest Air Force ever...
Obama says sequestration isn't going to happen... Obama snide about number of ships... "not a game of Battleship"... we don't have as many horses as we had in 1916 either...
But didn't the Navy ask for more ships?
***
Again, Obama is being nasty, snide, snarky... not Presidential in my view...
***
Schieffer: "Is an attack on Israel an attack on the U.S.?"
Obama doesn't answer directly... says only "we will stand with Israel."
Crippling sanctions on Iran, their economy in a shambles... we've offered Iran a choice, they can take the diplomatic route...
"I've sent young men and women into harm's way..."
Romney OK on this: "We will stand with Israel. We have Israel's back, not just culturally and diplomatically, but militarily."
Romney would tighten sanctions...
Weirdly, I wonder if Romney is doing OK tonight because he's not disagreeing with Obama too much...
***
Schieffer does OK sometimes: asks President straight out whether reports are true that we are going to have talks with Iran. President says reports aren't true.
Obama literally can't say anything about Romney without being a douchebag... again, I wonder if this plays with independents, moderates, women, etc. It plays with the 20-somethings on The Daily Kos, but I wonder if it plays with a 45 year old mother of three in a suburb of Cleveland.
That being said... this is easily Obama's best performance in the debates.
***
Romney finally hits Obama on the "apology tour"... Obama says "nothing is true." I never apologized for America... wow, he'll say anything.
When I came into office, the world was divided and Iran was resurgent; now Iran is at its weakest in many years.
Romney: "Iran is four years closer to having a nuclear weapon... here's why I said you went on an apology tour... you went to Egypt and said America had dictated to the region in the past and wouldn't do it anymore... "
Obama is really really sharp tonight, albeit a douchebag...
***
Schieffer: "What would you do if Netanyahu said our planes are airborne going to hit Iran?"
Romney: "wouldnt' happen, we would have been consulted given my relationship with him"
***
Does Obama's argument that he's brought such peace and harmony around the world really ring true to people?
Obama is trying to disqualify Romney as commander in chief... he's being strong, but I don't think he can disqualify Romney, not when his own foreign policy has been so bad...
We killed Osama... I was at Ground Zero... little girl haunted by 9/11... by finally getting bin Laden that brought closure to the little girl.
Obama doing well... Schieffer cuts off Romney. Ouch!
Romney basically buying into Afghanistan policy. Some semi-smart things about Pakistan...
Obama simply cannot mention the fact that Bush's surge in Iraq is what enabled us to get out of that war.... essentially taking credit for end of Iraq War. Asshat.
***
Romney not attacking Obama very much; Obama constantly attacking Romney. Different goals: Romney needs to show he's qualified, Obama needs to try to show that Romney is disqualified.
***
9:12 pm - Romney good here... Iran closer to a bomb, Middle East in tumult, al Qaeda not on the run, Israel-Palestine not closer to peace...
Obama Freudian slip: "This nation, Me.. sided with protesters in Tunisia."
***
Romney doing better toward the end... have people tuned out by now? Lucky for the GOP that the Cards-Giants game is such a snoozer.
Romney on China pretty good here... why did he do so badly on Libya at the beginning? Is it because it's just so confusing that he doesn't really get it either? Is he confident that the media won't help him? Did he get cowed by the last debate?
***
9:22 pm - Obama nasty: "you are familiar with shipping jobs overseas..." Kos Kids will love this... will independent voters?
This is a really frustrating debate, because Obama keeps being snarky, and I think it's unpresidential, but it may be that we've become a country that thinks in reality-TV terms, and will reward snark.
9:24 pm - Romney on auto industry "managed bankruptcy"... I am a son of Detroit, my father was an auto company executive...
***
9:26 pm - Obama... "in order for us to be competitive... we have to make smart choices... we can't go back to the same policies that got us into the problem..."
9:27 pm - Romney using opportunity to hit Obama on economy again... good...
Romney gets the last word!
Obama: "Now you've got a choice... we've made real progress from policies that gave us two wars, record deficits, and high unemployment... we'll bring manufacturing jobs back to our shows, we'll have the best education system in the world... energy sources of the future... as commander in chief, I will maintain the strongest military of the world... but after a decade of wars, we need to do some nation building at home... I will fight for your families, and I will work every single day to make sure..." Blah, blah, blah.
Romney: peace, confidence, optimism... pivots to economy: President's path means people out of work, Romney will get people off of food stamps by getting them jobs... we will have to have a President who can work across the aisle... we need strong leadership... America as the hope of the earth...
Great closing by Romney!!!
***
Obama won the battle but lost the war. I think he did a better job at debating, but a worse job at being Presidential. I think he didn't succeed in disqualifying Romney, and if Romney is not disqualified, Romney wins.
Debate Predictions from the Regular Son
The Regular Son weighs in on tonight's debate:
Here are mine:
1. Obama will try to paint Romney as a guy with his finger on the button on Iran, saying he wants to flex his muscles and start another war in the Mideast. He will tell some stories about funerals of veterans and make it seem as though the 5,000 or so we lost in the past decade were 500,000.
2. Obama will brag about sanctions on Iran, an argument Mitt will have a hard time refuting or countering without practically declaring war on Iran.
3. Obama will be incredibly obnoxious in trumpeting his killing of bin Laden. Romney needs to say at some point, "The president didn't kill bin Laden. The U.S. military killed bin Laden. If anyone should be taking credit, it's David H. Petraeus et al."
4. Obama will try to play on the unpopularity of the Iraq war and say that Romney would have continued this war.
5. Obama will instigate a big fight on defense spending. Romney will appeal to swing voters in Virginia by illustrating the jobs created there by defense contractors and the effects on the economy if arbitrary, massive cuts go into effect.
6. Romney will tie it into the debt, saying that other nations don't trust us and the dollar is going to grow weaker if our spending continues to run amok.
7. Obama will play the "I'm the president" card and say Romney is inexperienced, hoping no one notices his lack of any experience in anything whatsoever before he became President. Expect numerous references to Romney's trip to England.
8. Romney will hit Obama hard on weakening relations with Israel.
9. They will get into the weeds on China. The exchange will be confusing and unhelpful to most Americans.
10. Don't be surprised if we get a monkey wrench from Schiffer on Benghazi.
Here are mine:
1. Obama will try to paint Romney as a guy with his finger on the button on Iran, saying he wants to flex his muscles and start another war in the Mideast. He will tell some stories about funerals of veterans and make it seem as though the 5,000 or so we lost in the past decade were 500,000.
2. Obama will brag about sanctions on Iran, an argument Mitt will have a hard time refuting or countering without practically declaring war on Iran.
3. Obama will be incredibly obnoxious in trumpeting his killing of bin Laden. Romney needs to say at some point, "The president didn't kill bin Laden. The U.S. military killed bin Laden. If anyone should be taking credit, it's David H. Petraeus et al."
4. Obama will try to play on the unpopularity of the Iraq war and say that Romney would have continued this war.
5. Obama will instigate a big fight on defense spending. Romney will appeal to swing voters in Virginia by illustrating the jobs created there by defense contractors and the effects on the economy if arbitrary, massive cuts go into effect.
6. Romney will tie it into the debt, saying that other nations don't trust us and the dollar is going to grow weaker if our spending continues to run amok.
7. Obama will play the "I'm the president" card and say Romney is inexperienced, hoping no one notices his lack of any experience in anything whatsoever before he became President. Expect numerous references to Romney's trip to England.
8. Romney will hit Obama hard on weakening relations with Israel.
9. They will get into the weeds on China. The exchange will be confusing and unhelpful to most Americans.
10. Don't be surprised if we get a monkey wrench from Schiffer on Benghazi.
More Debate Predictions
Debate predictions:
1. Obama will talk about ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and his role in the Arab Spring, arguing that while it's not too soon to declare victory in the former, it's too soon to declare defeat regarding the latter.
2. Obama will mention that he "got" bin Laden about a hundred times. Romney won't question the morality, legality, or efficacy of extra-judicial murders of our enemies abroad, and the moderator won't push Obama about it. (The moderator also will not push Obama about his promises to close Gitmo, try terrorists as criminals in federal court, etc. The moderator won't push Obama about drone strikes generally as a tool of American foreign policy. What happened to liberals?)
3. Obama will hit Romney on China as a "flip flopper" because he outsourced jobs there in his Bain days.
4. Obama will express outrage at even being questioned about his various "narratives" about the Benghazi attacks.
5. Obama will try to do a Johnson "mushroom cloud" bit on Romney as Goldwater regarding Iran and Israel, saying Romney's bellicosity toward Iran could lead to war in the Middle East.
6. Romney will try mightily to draw the connections between a strong economy and strength in foreign policy, arguing that energy independence will improve our options in the Middle East and defund radical Islamists, lowering our deficits will defund China's military, enhancing free trade will bring us closer to our allies, etc.
7. Romney at some point ought to say, but probably won't say something like this: "What does it say about President Obama that Chavez, Castro and Putin all support him?"
The Debate That Won't Occur
Here are ten questions that likely will not be asked, but should be:
1. Cuba is ninety miles from the tip of Florida, where millions of Cuban-Americans live. Cuba's dictator, Fidel Castro, will likely die during your term. What will be your policy toward Cuba and, specifically, what will you do as President to move Cuba back from socialism toward being a democratic and free market-oriented society?
2. Mr. President, why do Hugo Chavez, Castro, and Vladimir Putin, leaders of socialist countries, back you for President?
3. Mr. President, can you categorically deny that your campaign has received foreign donations through your web-based fundraising activities? Don't you think it is dangerous for foreign nationals to be able to have an impact on the presidential race? What will you do in the last two weeks before the end of the campaign to make sure that you are not receiving foreign donations and to return any foreign donations you have received?
4. What do successful economies around the world have in common? What do unsuccessful economies around the world have in common?
5. Is radical Islam anti-Semitic?
6. What long-term problems do falling birthrates in Western industrialized countries create? How would you address those problems?
7. How big should the United States military be, and what would it cost to make it that big? Shouldn't the first order of the federal government be to sustain whatever size military is necessary to protect our nation and to advance our national interests around the world?
8. Mr. President, do you believe that the British Empire was in the main a force for good in India and South African and Kenya throughout their histories, or a force for evil?
9. Is Israel an ally? Is Egypt an ally? How can both be allies given the ascension of the Muslim Brotherhood to power in Egypt?
10. Should the United States have higher corporate and individual income taxes than its competitors abroad, or lower, and why?
1. Cuba is ninety miles from the tip of Florida, where millions of Cuban-Americans live. Cuba's dictator, Fidel Castro, will likely die during your term. What will be your policy toward Cuba and, specifically, what will you do as President to move Cuba back from socialism toward being a democratic and free market-oriented society?
2. Mr. President, why do Hugo Chavez, Castro, and Vladimir Putin, leaders of socialist countries, back you for President?
3. Mr. President, can you categorically deny that your campaign has received foreign donations through your web-based fundraising activities? Don't you think it is dangerous for foreign nationals to be able to have an impact on the presidential race? What will you do in the last two weeks before the end of the campaign to make sure that you are not receiving foreign donations and to return any foreign donations you have received?
4. What do successful economies around the world have in common? What do unsuccessful economies around the world have in common?
5. Is radical Islam anti-Semitic?
6. What long-term problems do falling birthrates in Western industrialized countries create? How would you address those problems?
7. How big should the United States military be, and what would it cost to make it that big? Shouldn't the first order of the federal government be to sustain whatever size military is necessary to protect our nation and to advance our national interests around the world?
8. Mr. President, do you believe that the British Empire was in the main a force for good in India and South African and Kenya throughout their histories, or a force for evil?
9. Is Israel an ally? Is Egypt an ally? How can both be allies given the ascension of the Muslim Brotherhood to power in Egypt?
10. Should the United States have higher corporate and individual income taxes than its competitors abroad, or lower, and why?
Girl of the Day - Deneuve!
It's Catherine Deneuve's 69th birthday. It's hard to imagine how there has ever been a more beautiful movie actress, although it would make for an interesting essay (one I have no time to write) whether some actresses are just too beautiful... thus, you can imagine a beautiful but imperfect or idiosyncratic-looking Meryl Streep playing a lot of different kinds of roles, but if Deneuve or Grace Kelly or Jacqueline Bisset are on screen, it's hard to get around the fact that they are head-spinningly beautiful. For instance, you can't imagine them playing the role Streep played in Deer Hunter of a working-class girl working in a grocery store married to a boy who works in the steel mill and then gets drafted to go to Vietnam. If Deneuve was working in a grocery store, about the only narrative you can imagine would be that she would be discovered by a modeling agency and be on the cover of Vogue within a month or two.
Difficult Decision
Does the Regular Guy watch the last presidential debate or Game 7 of the Cardinals-Giants NLCS?
Friday, October 19, 2012
Mitt Romney, Good Guy
And by "good guy" I mean "exceptionally honorable and decent man who has done lots and lots of good in his life. Here's a segment from CBS News (of all places) about Mitt Romney the man:
Faster, please.
Faster, please.
Binders Won't Do It
Mark Steyn, with Hugh Hewitt yesterday:
Exactly so. Your resume will only take you so far. After that, you actually have to do the job.
MS: Well look, Obama has run all his life as the most promising…he’s run on promise. He became the president of the Harvard Law thing, Review, on promise. He hadn’t done anything. He got the Nobel Peace Price on promise. He was elected president on promise. This is the first time in his life when he’s actually got a record, and he’s got to stand by that record. And the problem is he’s got nothing to offer for the future. He keeps saying this lame line, 100,000 new teachers. Nobody seriously thinks that the problem with America’s hideous, wretched, mediocre education system is that it needs more money or more teachers. He’s basically ignoring his first term, he’s got nothing to say about his second term, and he’s still talking about Bush as if Bush left office just four days ago. This is a disaster of a campaign, and none of the left’s desperate attempts to clutch at straws, clutching at binders, going down to Staples and clutching the binder from the top shelf until they all topple down on top of you. The binders aren’t going to do it for you.
Exactly so. Your resume will only take you so far. After that, you actually have to do the job.
One Great Man
Barack Obama was the first African-American President, and that is something to rejoice about, despite disagreements over his policies and vision for America.
Mitt Romney hopefully will be a great President who will turn America back from the brink of decline and make America great again.
But I can't help thinking there is only one great man in the picture below from last night's Al Smith Dinner in New York:
Hint: it's not Chris Matthews.
Mitt Romney hopefully will be a great President who will turn America back from the brink of decline and make America great again.
But I can't help thinking there is only one great man in the picture below from last night's Al Smith Dinner in New York:
Hint: it's not Chris Matthews.
Green Energy Jobs in a Nutshell
Here's a report about a lithium-ion battery maker in Michigan that should curl your hair:
Workers at LG Chem, a $300 million lithium-ion battery plant heavily funded by taxpayers, tell Target 8 that they have so little work to do that they spend hours playing cards and board games, reading magazines or watching movies.
They say it's been going on for months.
"There would be up to 40 of us that would just sit in there during the day," said former LG Chem employee Nicole Merryman, who said she quit in May.
"We were given assignments to go outside and clean; if we weren't cleaning outside, we were cleaning inside. If there was nothing for us to do, we would study in the cafeteria, or we would sit and play cards, sit and read magazines," said Merryman. "It's really sad that all these people are sitting there and doing nothing, and it's basically on taxpayer money."
Nightmare Scenario?
You thought the 2000 Bush-Gore fiasco was bad? Consider this nightmare scenario.
1. Obama dominates in huge states like California, Illinois and New York, and ends up winning the national popular vote by a slim margin, say, 50.2% to 49.8%.
2. Obama and Romney tie in the Electoral College, 269-269. Think that can't happen?
Here's the current RCP electoral college prediction map, showing Romney up 206-201:
Now assume Romney wins the states he's expected now to win, Florida, Virginia and Colorado. That gets him to 257:
Now assume Romney ekes out wins in Nevada and Iowa, states that he's close in now. That gets him to 269:
Then Obama wins the upper Midwest industrial states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and also ekes out a win in the New England state of New Hampshire, all of which he won in 2008, and all of which are more or less Democratic states. That makes it 269-269.
3. So the Electoral College is tied and the decision goes to the House.
4. Now assume that the Democrats eke out a majority in the House, say, 220-215. So they win, right?
5. Wrong! Under the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, the decision by the House is by state delegations, not by raw numbers of Congressmen in each party. So, because Republicans will likely hold more state delegations (with the one Congressman in Wyoming weighing as much as the 55 in California), Romney will be elected President.
Think you can explain that to Obama supporters without rioting commencing?
I don't think so either.
1. Obama dominates in huge states like California, Illinois and New York, and ends up winning the national popular vote by a slim margin, say, 50.2% to 49.8%.
2. Obama and Romney tie in the Electoral College, 269-269. Think that can't happen?
Here's the current RCP electoral college prediction map, showing Romney up 206-201:
Now assume Romney wins the states he's expected now to win, Florida, Virginia and Colorado. That gets him to 257:
Now assume Romney ekes out wins in Nevada and Iowa, states that he's close in now. That gets him to 269:
Then Obama wins the upper Midwest industrial states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and also ekes out a win in the New England state of New Hampshire, all of which he won in 2008, and all of which are more or less Democratic states. That makes it 269-269.
3. So the Electoral College is tied and the decision goes to the House.
4. Now assume that the Democrats eke out a majority in the House, say, 220-215. So they win, right?
5. Wrong! Under the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, the decision by the House is by state delegations, not by raw numbers of Congressmen in each party. So, because Republicans will likely hold more state delegations (with the one Congressman in Wyoming weighing as much as the 55 in California), Romney will be elected President.
Think you can explain that to Obama supporters without rioting commencing?
I don't think so either.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
"Not Optimal"
From Beltway Confidential:
Have you ever seen President Obama as angry at the Islamic terrorists who killed an American ambassador as he has obviously been at Mitt Romney, whose crime in Obama's eyes appears to be simply the fact that he's a successful white Christian American who happens to have garden-variety political disagreements with Mr. Obama in a two-party system in a democracy where, until Obama was elected, Democrats used to say dissent was "patriotic"? What does it say about Obama if he's angrier at fellow Americans -- Republicans -- than he is at Islamic terrorists?
President Obama, during the taping of The Daily Show, discussed the Benghazi terrorist attack that claimed the lives of the U.S. Ambassador to Libya and three other Americans.I don't want to pick on President Obama's words here. But I will offer a question, and if you're out there reading about this, think hard about what this means.
“Here’s what I’ll say. When four Americans get killed, it’s not optimal. We’re going to fix it,” Obama said per pool. “The government is a big operation and [at] any given time something screws up,” he also said, saying that he believes “you find out what’s broken and you fix it.”
Have you ever seen President Obama as angry at the Islamic terrorists who killed an American ambassador as he has obviously been at Mitt Romney, whose crime in Obama's eyes appears to be simply the fact that he's a successful white Christian American who happens to have garden-variety political disagreements with Mr. Obama in a two-party system in a democracy where, until Obama was elected, Democrats used to say dissent was "patriotic"? What does it say about Obama if he's angrier at fellow Americans -- Republicans -- than he is at Islamic terrorists?
Dan Quayle, We're Sorry!
Did we have troops in Iran that I didn't know about? Can you imagine if Dan Quayle had said something like this at a moment when foreign policy and specifically Middle East policy is at the center of the presidential election?
I mean, can you just imagine what would have happened?
Quayle was a smart man who was basically run out of politics by the media because of a single misstatement that they used to brand him as a dunce. Biden makes worse misstatements every day and almost every time he opens his mouth. Yet the media gives him a pass.
I mean, can you just imagine what would have happened?
Quayle was a smart man who was basically run out of politics by the media because of a single misstatement that they used to brand him as a dunce. Biden makes worse misstatements every day and almost every time he opens his mouth. Yet the media gives him a pass.
Girl of the Day - Pam Dawber
The late 1970s sitcom "Mork and Mindy" made Robin Williams a star, but I watched it mostly for Pam Dawber as "Mindy," who turns 61 today, which makes the RG feel very very old.
The Seventies... you had to be there.
The Seventies... you had to be there.
Two Data Points on Government Spending
We keep hearing from the left that we can't cut government spending enough to balance the budget, we have to raise taxes on "the wealthy." Putting aside the fact that there aren't enough "wealthy" to tax even at confiscatory rates to balance the budget, here are two data points that put the lie to the notion that we can't cut government spending.
First, did you know that we are now spending more than $1 trillion on means-tested welfare programs, nearly double what we spend on defense? This is not including Social Security and Medicare, but does include as the five largest line items:
Second, Senator Tom Coburn annually does a report on the most egregious wasteful expenditures of taxpayer money in the federal budget. Here are some of the items:
The Regular Guy will now impart some common sense.
Don't borrow money from one foreign country to pay foreign aid to another foreign country.
Don't borrow money to subsidize businesses in America that compete with other American businesses.
Don't borrow money to buy soda when you can drink water.
First, did you know that we are now spending more than $1 trillion on means-tested welfare programs, nearly double what we spend on defense? This is not including Social Security and Medicare, but does include as the five largest line items:
- $296 billion for Medicaid
- $75 billion in SNAP (supplemental nutrition assistance program) food stamps
- $59 billion in Supplemental Security Income
- $55 billion in earned income tax credits
- $41 billion in Pell grants for higher education
Second, Senator Tom Coburn annually does a report on the most egregious wasteful expenditures of taxpayer money in the federal budget. Here are some of the items:
- "More than $2 billion of beverages sweetened with sugar are purchased with food stamps every year, according to a study by the Yale Rudd Center for Food Policy & Obesity published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine.58 "Fifty-eight percent of all refreshment beverages purchased by SNAP participants were for sugar-sweetened beverages," such as soda pop and sports drinks."
- In 2009, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) began pursuing a four-year plan to improve the economic competitiveness of Morocco. A review by the agency’s Inspector General (IG) found the $27-million project "was not on track to achieve its goals." A key part of the project involved training Moroccans to create and design pottery to sell in domestic and international markets. To accomplish this, an American pottery instructor was contracted to provide several weeks of training classes to local artists to improve their methods and teach them how to successfully make pottery that could be brought to market. Unfortunately, the translator hired for the sessions was not fluent in English and was unable to transmit large portions of the lectures to the participants.
- $9 million in federal money was earmarked to a failing for-profit ferry verging on bankruptcy, which very few people benefitted from and a small town in Alaska did not want. To make matters worse, this project is threatening the economic health of once vibrant local tour and ferry operator businesses. Operating about one hundred miles south of Anchorage, the federally funded ferry duplicates and threatens services offered by existing private businesses and the state’s own ferry service. The ferry, Kachemak Voyager – which is managed by the Seldovia Village Tribe – runs between Seldovia and Homer, towns 16 miles apart from one another across the bay. Since 2010, the $3.3 million Kachemak Voyager has frustrated Seldovia’s two other private tour and ferry operators who had run successful businesses for years.149 The companies are unable to compete with the ferry’s millions in taxpayer support, which lowers Voyager’s ticket prices. "The tribe was supposed to build a ferry for moving people, cars and freight. Instead they took that money and bought a tour boat," said Tim Cashman, owner of Alaska Coastal Marine Services, one of Seldovia’s two private tour operators. "It has taken a 30-40 percent bite out of my business - our losses are in the hundreds of thousands. The federal government has actually borrowed money from my children to put me out of business."
The Regular Guy will now impart some common sense.
Don't borrow money from one foreign country to pay foreign aid to another foreign country.
Don't borrow money to subsidize businesses in America that compete with other American businesses.
Don't borrow money to buy soda when you can drink water.
The State of Play
We are now 19 days from the 2012 election. Here is the state of play as I see it:
My premise is that states that went strongly for Bush in 2004 are essentially Republican states that will "come home" to the GOP after a brief romantic fling with Obamamania in 2008. That fling is now over... those states woke up and saw that the romantic figure they had brought home from the bar after a night of tequila shooters is actually an out-of-work sociology grad student who can't find a job in his "field." The states that have come home are Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado. That gets Romney to 257 electoral votes.
What does this mean? It means that Romney only needs 13 more electoral votes to get to 270. There are a lot of ways to get there.
1. Win Iowa and Nevada. These are states that Bush won in 2004, but were close. That gets you to 269, which means you will win in the House because Republicans will control more state delegations. (For those of you who don't understand how this works, the House does not vote on the President in the event of a tie in gross, but instead votes by state delegations. Thus, California's huge Democratic majority will be counterbalanced by Wyoming's lone Republican congressman. Weird, but that's the Constitution. You could obviate the necessity for that by winning one district in Maine, which splits its electoral college votes. That would get you to 270.
2. Win Wisconsin and New Hampshire. These states have historically been very close, but I think have been trending toward Republicans in recent years, and show huge drops in Obama's support from the anomaly of 2008. Wisconsin has a popular conservative governor in Scott Walker, the VP candidate in Paul Ryan, and a popular former governor, Tommy Thompson, running for an open Senate seat. And Romney as the former governor of Massachusetts is well-known in NH. Win those two and you're at 271.
3. Win Michigan. Michigan just elected a Republican governor in 2010, it's economy is in the toilet, Detroit is a poster-child for liberal policies' destructive effects on cities and economies, and Romney grew up there. That would get you to 273.
4. Win Pennsylvania. I could be wrong, but I think Pennsylvania is ripe for the picking. Obama won it by 10 in 2008, but Kerry only won it by 2 points in 2004. That would get you to 277.
5. Win Ohio. Ohio's economy is actually doing better than the national economy, and Obama has spent a lot of resources there. Ohio has been traditionally Republican, but has been changing in recent cycles. I think Romney wins there, but if he wins there it will be gravy and he won't really need it, because he will have already won elsewhere.
My premise is that states that went strongly for Bush in 2004 are essentially Republican states that will "come home" to the GOP after a brief romantic fling with Obamamania in 2008. That fling is now over... those states woke up and saw that the romantic figure they had brought home from the bar after a night of tequila shooters is actually an out-of-work sociology grad student who can't find a job in his "field." The states that have come home are Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado. That gets Romney to 257 electoral votes.
What does this mean? It means that Romney only needs 13 more electoral votes to get to 270. There are a lot of ways to get there.
1. Win Iowa and Nevada. These are states that Bush won in 2004, but were close. That gets you to 269, which means you will win in the House because Republicans will control more state delegations. (For those of you who don't understand how this works, the House does not vote on the President in the event of a tie in gross, but instead votes by state delegations. Thus, California's huge Democratic majority will be counterbalanced by Wyoming's lone Republican congressman. Weird, but that's the Constitution. You could obviate the necessity for that by winning one district in Maine, which splits its electoral college votes. That would get you to 270.
2. Win Wisconsin and New Hampshire. These states have historically been very close, but I think have been trending toward Republicans in recent years, and show huge drops in Obama's support from the anomaly of 2008. Wisconsin has a popular conservative governor in Scott Walker, the VP candidate in Paul Ryan, and a popular former governor, Tommy Thompson, running for an open Senate seat. And Romney as the former governor of Massachusetts is well-known in NH. Win those two and you're at 271.
3. Win Michigan. Michigan just elected a Republican governor in 2010, it's economy is in the toilet, Detroit is a poster-child for liberal policies' destructive effects on cities and economies, and Romney grew up there. That would get you to 273.
4. Win Pennsylvania. I could be wrong, but I think Pennsylvania is ripe for the picking. Obama won it by 10 in 2008, but Kerry only won it by 2 points in 2004. That would get you to 277.
5. Win Ohio. Ohio's economy is actually doing better than the national economy, and Obama has spent a lot of resources there. Ohio has been traditionally Republican, but has been changing in recent cycles. I think Romney wins there, but if he wins there it will be gravy and he won't really need it, because he will have already won elsewhere.
Wag the Dog?
There's chatter in the blogosphere based supposedly on chatter in the military/intelligence communities that Obama will hit some al Qaeda targets in Libya with drone strikes over the weekend and before the Monday night debate on foreign policy.
In 1992 Bill Clinton rushed back to Arkansas at a crucial moment of the Democratic primary season to preside at the execution of a mentally deficient murderer.
In 2012 will Barack Obama, the anti-war candidate, try to salvage his Presidency by extra-judicial murder of Libyan citizens based on what will essentially be accusations by the American military/intelligence establishment that they were "connected" to the murders of our ambassador and three other Americans?
It's interesting how easily leftists resort to taking human lives when their electoral prospects are threatened.
Eggs, omelette. You get the picture.
In 1992 Bill Clinton rushed back to Arkansas at a crucial moment of the Democratic primary season to preside at the execution of a mentally deficient murderer.
In 2012 will Barack Obama, the anti-war candidate, try to salvage his Presidency by extra-judicial murder of Libyan citizens based on what will essentially be accusations by the American military/intelligence establishment that they were "connected" to the murders of our ambassador and three other Americans?
It's interesting how easily leftists resort to taking human lives when their electoral prospects are threatened.
Eggs, omelette. You get the picture.
VDH on a "Bright and Shining Lie"
Victor Davis Hanson as always puts the President's lies on Libya in focus:
The key is the convention. The President's team knew probably as early as last spring that they wouldn't be able to run on the economy due to the persistent slow growth and high unemployment and high deficits. So they pivoted to two themes -- Romney is mean and scary and Obama is the great foreign policy President who got bin Laden and ended two wars. But they knew by the convention that their demonization of Romney wasn't working, despite hundreds of millions in advertising designed to paint him as a heartless outsourcer and plutocrat. So the foreign policy leg of their campaign was all that was left. But then the second 9/11 happened (recalling Marx who said that history happens twice, first as tragedy, then as farce). And their entire campaign, their entire convention was made to look foolish. Obama was Chamberlain, naively proclaiming "peace in our time," while the world was going to hell around him.
Desperate men do desperate things. Hence the Benghazi coverup. Can they kick the can of the scandal past the election? Candy Crowley helped them in the last debate, but Monday night will be focused entirely on foreign policy, and Romney will be coached up on the facts and on key lines of attack.
***
On a side note... isn't it passing strange that Obama, who ran as the anti-war candidate in 2008, now runs for re-election with his only real accomplishment being the military murders of bin Laden and other al Qaeda leaders, and his main claim being that he has "decimated" al Qaeda around the world?
During this summer's Democratic convention, Obama supporters trumpeted the successes of his Middle East policy: Osama bin Laden dead, al-Qaeda defanged and Arab Spring reformers in place of dictators.
To keep that shining message viable until the November election, the Obama administration and the media had been willing to overlook or mischaracterize all sorts of disturbing events.... For most of September, desperate administration officials still clung to the myth that the Libyan catastrophe was a result of a single obnoxious video. At the United Nations, the president castigated the uncouth film. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lamented the senseless spontaneous violence that grew out of one American's excesses, as she spoke beside the returning coffins of the slain Americans.Nonetheless, more disturbing facts kept emerging: Ambassador Stevens repeatedly had warned his State Department superiors in vain of impending Islamist violence. Security personnel -- to no avail -- had also urged beefing up the protection of the consulate, prompting former regional security officer Eric Nordstrom to say in exasperation that "the Taliban is on the inside of the building." Video of the attack revealed that there had been no demonstration at all, but rather a full-fledged terrorist assault.Even as the fantasy of a spur-of-the-moment demonstration dissipated, administration officials tried to salvage it -- and with it their idealistic policy in the Middle East. Vice President Joe Biden told a flat-out whopper in last week's debate, saying the administration hadn't been informed that Americans in Libya had ever requested more security. He scapegoated the intelligence agencies for supposedly failing to warn the administration of the threat.The new administration narrative faulted not one video, but the intelligence community for misleading them about the threat of an al-Qaeda hit on an American consulate -- and the Romney campaign for demanding answers about a slain ambassador and his associates. Meanwhile, the State Department, the Obama re-election team and the intelligence community were all pointing fingers at each other.What the Obama administration could not concede was the truth: The lead-from-behind intervention in Libya had proved a blueprint for nothing. Libya has descended into chaos. Radical Islam had either subverted or hijacked the Arab Spring. Al-Qaeda was not dismantled by the death of bin Laden or by the stepped-up drone assassination missions in Pakistan. Egypt was becoming Islamist; Syria was a bloody mess. Iran was on the way to becoming nuclear. Obama had won America no more good will in the Middle East than had prior presidents.In other words, the administration's entire experience in Libya -- and in most of the Middle East in general -- has been a bright and shining lie.
The key is the convention. The President's team knew probably as early as last spring that they wouldn't be able to run on the economy due to the persistent slow growth and high unemployment and high deficits. So they pivoted to two themes -- Romney is mean and scary and Obama is the great foreign policy President who got bin Laden and ended two wars. But they knew by the convention that their demonization of Romney wasn't working, despite hundreds of millions in advertising designed to paint him as a heartless outsourcer and plutocrat. So the foreign policy leg of their campaign was all that was left. But then the second 9/11 happened (recalling Marx who said that history happens twice, first as tragedy, then as farce). And their entire campaign, their entire convention was made to look foolish. Obama was Chamberlain, naively proclaiming "peace in our time," while the world was going to hell around him.
Desperate men do desperate things. Hence the Benghazi coverup. Can they kick the can of the scandal past the election? Candy Crowley helped them in the last debate, but Monday night will be focused entirely on foreign policy, and Romney will be coached up on the facts and on key lines of attack.
***
On a side note... isn't it passing strange that Obama, who ran as the anti-war candidate in 2008, now runs for re-election with his only real accomplishment being the military murders of bin Laden and other al Qaeda leaders, and his main claim being that he has "decimated" al Qaeda around the world?
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
A Grain of Salt the Size of an Iceberg
I'm big on analyzing polls, but you always have to remember the human factor, and take polls with an enormous grain of salt. Many people (a) are uninformed; (b) not that bright to begin with; and (c) not that honest. To wit, this "man on the street" interview segment from the Jimmy Kimmel show, in which he asks people who won last night's debate before it happened!
Interestingly, none of these people seem stupid. To the contrary, they are the epitome of the liberal voter... pretending to be smarter than they really are, and offering what they think is the politically correct opinion.
There's a lot of that going around. In fact, I'd say this attitude explains the 2008 election... people voted for Obama because they wanted to feel smarter, and cooler, and hipper, and more tolerant, and more cutting edge than they really are.
Interestingly, none of these people seem stupid. To the contrary, they are the epitome of the liberal voter... pretending to be smarter than they really are, and offering what they think is the politically correct opinion.
There's a lot of that going around. In fact, I'd say this attitude explains the 2008 election... people voted for Obama because they wanted to feel smarter, and cooler, and hipper, and more tolerant, and more cutting edge than they really are.
Planned Parenthood
President Obama mentioned Planned Parenthood four times in last night's debate:
What he didn't mention, the elephant in the room with regard to Planned Parenthood, is this:
1. "We haven't heard from the governor any specifics [about cutting spending] beyond Big Bird and eliminating funding for Planned Parenthood in terms of how he pays for that."
2. "When Governor Romney says that we should eliminate funding for Planned Parenthood, there are millions of women all across the country who rely on Planned Parenthood for not just contraceptive care. They rely on it for mammograms, for cervical cancer screenings. That's a pocketbook issue for women and families all across the country."
3. "George Bush never suggested that we eliminate funding for Planned Parenthood."
4. "You know, when members of the Republican Congress say, we're going to sign a no tax pledge so that we don't ask a dime from millionaires and billionaires to reduce our deficit so we can still invest in education and helping kids go to college, he said, me too. When they said, we're going to cut Planned Parenthood funding, he said, me too."
What he didn't mention, the elephant in the room with regard to Planned Parenthood, is this:
- 51 percent of Planned Parenthood’s yearly clinic income – their only self-sustaining revenue source – comes from abortion.
- Its total revenue is $320.8 million; it's total revenue from abortion is $164.12 million. It also receives $223.8 million in private donations.
- This non-profit with $544.1 million in total revenue from services and private donations receives $487.4 million from taxpayers per year, making it a $1 billion enterprise.
- In their last reporting year, Planned Parenthood performed 329,445 abortions.
- Planned Parenthood is by far the United States' largest abortion provider, performing 27.5% of all abortions in the United States
- Planned Parenthood does not perform mammograms.
Candy Crowley
After a few minutes of the debate last night I thought Candy Crowley was doing an OK job as the moderator. Then I think she let her true liberal lefty come out. Whining about liberal media bias is probably a bad strategy, but please. This is outrageous:
1. Crowley interrupted Romney 28 times, Obama only 9 times.
2. Crowley gave Obama three more minutes of speaking time, although her only job is to ensure that each side gets equal time.
3. Crowley gave Obama the last word on 8 out of 11 questions.
4. Crowley "corrected" Romney on Libya, saying that Obama had stated that the attack on the Benghazi consulate was an "act of terror" in the Rose Garden on 9/12, even though only two weeks earlier she had said on national TV that it had taken the administration until 9/28 to admit that it had been a terrorist act:
1. Crowley interrupted Romney 28 times, Obama only 9 times.
2. Crowley gave Obama three more minutes of speaking time, although her only job is to ensure that each side gets equal time.
3. Crowley gave Obama the last word on 8 out of 11 questions.
4. Crowley "corrected" Romney on Libya, saying that Obama had stated that the attack on the Benghazi consulate was an "act of terror" in the Rose Garden on 9/12, even though only two weeks earlier she had said on national TV that it had taken the administration until 9/28 to admit that it had been a terrorist act:
Scoring the Regular Guy's Debate Predictions
So how did the Regular Guy do on his debate predictions? Let's take a look:
1. Obama will try to channel his inner Uncle Joe to be more "aggressive." This will come off as being unnatural, but there are enough people out there (the MSNBC crowd, the reality-TV audience, etc.) who think that aggressiveness and effectiveness are synonymous. So he'll look like he's doing better. Meanwhile, he still doesn't have command of his brief, and will stumble over facts and figures. And, of course, he can't defend the indefensible -- trillion dollar deficits, high unemployment, foreign policy disarray and military weakness. But a little bit less passivity will give people a hook to hank their hats on to claim that he did better.
Check. Obama was more aggressive and even nasty at times. The MSNBC crowd ate it up. Andrew Sullivan is off suicide watch, Rachel Maddow is declaring the return of the Messiah, Chris Matthews has his leg tingle back.
2. Romney will be Romney. A little bit boring, but stable and presidential. He passed the bar last time, this time is just confirmation.
Check. Romney could have done better at times, but he did well, and remained a plausible Presidential alternative. If people are looking to fire Obama and hire someone new, Romney has passed over the threshold of being someone able to be President. Not very many people think he's not qualified anymore.
3. Candy Crowley will try her best to drag Obama over the finish line. She will be quantum leaps up in obnoxiousness over Jim Lehrer and Martha Raddatz. Expect a lot of questions about the "specifics" of Romney's plan on taxes.
Check, check, check. I really didn't expect Crowley to break her own contract* to intervene as a fact-checker in Obama's favor on the Libya question. Appalling lack of journalistic ethics.
4. The mainstream media will do their best to proclaim Obama the victor in the debate if he has even only a marginally better performance.
Check. The comback narrative was pre-packaged and rolled out immediately after the debate. Whether it can hold as people dig deeper into the Libya issue in preparation for next Monday's foreign policy debate, we'll see.
* As Ann Althouse notes, the debate moderators all sign an agreement with the following proviso:
1. Obama will try to channel his inner Uncle Joe to be more "aggressive." This will come off as being unnatural, but there are enough people out there (the MSNBC crowd, the reality-TV audience, etc.) who think that aggressiveness and effectiveness are synonymous. So he'll look like he's doing better. Meanwhile, he still doesn't have command of his brief, and will stumble over facts and figures. And, of course, he can't defend the indefensible -- trillion dollar deficits, high unemployment, foreign policy disarray and military weakness. But a little bit less passivity will give people a hook to hank their hats on to claim that he did better.
Check. Obama was more aggressive and even nasty at times. The MSNBC crowd ate it up. Andrew Sullivan is off suicide watch, Rachel Maddow is declaring the return of the Messiah, Chris Matthews has his leg tingle back.
2. Romney will be Romney. A little bit boring, but stable and presidential. He passed the bar last time, this time is just confirmation.
Check. Romney could have done better at times, but he did well, and remained a plausible Presidential alternative. If people are looking to fire Obama and hire someone new, Romney has passed over the threshold of being someone able to be President. Not very many people think he's not qualified anymore.
3. Candy Crowley will try her best to drag Obama over the finish line. She will be quantum leaps up in obnoxiousness over Jim Lehrer and Martha Raddatz. Expect a lot of questions about the "specifics" of Romney's plan on taxes.
Check, check, check. I really didn't expect Crowley to break her own contract* to intervene as a fact-checker in Obama's favor on the Libya question. Appalling lack of journalistic ethics.
4. The mainstream media will do their best to proclaim Obama the victor in the debate if he has even only a marginally better performance.
Check. The comback narrative was pre-packaged and rolled out immediately after the debate. Whether it can hold as people dig deeper into the Libya issue in preparation for next Monday's foreign policy debate, we'll see.
* As Ann Althouse notes, the debate moderators all sign an agreement with the following proviso:
7. Additional Rules Apllicable to the October 16 Debate...
(c) With respect to all questions...
(iv) The moderator will not ask follow-up questions or comment on either the questions asked by the audience or the answers of the candidates during the debate or otherwise intervene in the debate except to acknowledge the questioners from the audience or enforce the time limits, and invite candidate comments during the 2 minute response period.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Drunkblogging Presidential Debate #2 - Live at 8:00 PM
I'm getting ready. I've got a cold beverage and the Regular Son and Regular Dog and I are safely ensconced in the basement in front of the flat screen. Let's get ready to rumble!
Megyn Kelly on FoxNews... what could be better?
***
8:00 pm - Here we go... Candy Crowley scary!!!
8:02 pm - Jeremy Epstein... 20 year-old... asks about jobs when I graduate.
Romney... going to the middle... Pell Grants, college scholarships... I want you to have a good job. I know what it takes to create good jobs again.
Regular Son: a little bit platitudinous. But empathetic...
Obama: the most important thing is to be creating jobs... 5,000,000 jobs created over the past three years. Manufacturing jobs in this country... auto industry... Romney would have let them go bankrupt.
I want everybody to get a great education... he's doing a point 1, point 2, point 3 answer just like Romney did in the first debate... he's doing better, but he's all over the map.
Candy Crowley follow up... long-term unemployment.
Romney... five point plan to get 12 million new jobs. Romney correcting the President on taking General Motors into bankruptcy...
Obama: Governor Romney has a one point plan... make sure the people on top do better, ship jobs overseas and get tax breaks for it...
Candy Crowley heard the lefts screams about Jim Lehrer...
Question to Obama... do you believe with Stephen Chu that it's not the job of his department to lower gas prices?
Obama not answering the question... clean energy double down.
Romney answer good: "How in the world the President said no to the Keystone pipeline?" OK... but needed to talk about gas prices.
Candy Crowley making President answer the question on gas prices... still not answering...
President more aggressive, Romney still aggressive... Romney asks President question... but gives Obama a chance to answer. Romney fights back... Romney goes alpha male and Obama backs off and sits down.
Romney hits on gas prices! Home run!
Greatest moment in Presidential debates ever... Romney making Obama back off and sit down. Romney tells him to wait till he gets done.
Obama babbling... Romney just won the Presidency.
***
Mitt on taxes... lower rates, but cap deductions for higher income... no tax on your savings for middle income people... he's getting pretty specific.
Mitt hammering Obama on spending and borrowing...
Obama... I cut taxes for middle income people, I cut taxes for small businesses... but if we're serious about reducing the deficit, we've got to make sure that the wealthy do a little bit more...
I'm revising my opinion on the first debate... Obama wasn't so bad, Romney is just so good.
Mitt: 3.5 million more women living in poverty than when Obama took office...
Championing small business... I spent my life in the private sector...
Candy Crowley... why is Romney wrong if he says he's going to lower rates and cut exemptions to keep the wealthy? (Christ... she's actually being fair.)
Obama: hitting Romney on his own 14% tax rate... sounds petulant and mean? You can't buy this sales pitch...
Romney: hitting Obama on his own numbers not adding up... $16 trillion in debt. I know what it takes to balance budget...
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8:35 pm - Liberal question about workplace inequality/glass ceiling for women, pay disparity...
Obama on his own Mom, Lily Ledbetter bill...
This will be good... Romney can reach a lot of women voters by talking about the women he hired at Bain... I could practically write the response myself.
Romney talking about women in his cabinet... MA had more women in his candidate than any other state. He was sensitive to women's need for flexibility... his chief of staff had two children and needed to get home to feed them dinner... great answer for middle-class Moms. Another home run... noting that bad economy hurts women. Great, great, great. Mr. President Romney... get used to it.
I know what it takes... Romney's mantra. Implication: Obama doesn't.
***
8:42 pm - Obama seguing to health care/contraception... this won't work. He's a knee jerk liberal... bad answer.
Romney is going to hammer him on the Catholic Church mandate...
Wait... Romney doesn't get a chance to answer that crap? Really? Really? OK... I take it back, Crowley.
***
Question to Romney to differentiate himself from President Bush... Romney agrees with Obama that Bush ran deficits that were outrageous... but Obama doubled what Bush had done.
In a perfect world he could say something nice about Bush, but I understand that he can't. And... as a Christian gentleman, I'll bet President Bush understands that.
Obama hitting Romney on China and outsourcing... Romney has to educate the MF.
***
Black man asks President Obama: "what have you done to help me in your four years?"
I killed Osama bin Laden. I did five more things that aren't true or don't help.
Let's see Romney win some black votes too.
Romney: "I think you know better... the last four years haven't been too good." More in sadness than in anger. Very very very good. "This is a President who hasn't been able to do what he said he would do.... the middle class is being crushed."
Romney is crushing this. "The President wants to do well... but the policies combined have not led the economy."
"The President has tried... but we have a record to look at. He's a great speaker, but a failure."
***
Next question for Romney.
Romney gently asks woman to get her name right. Great moment from a nice man.
Question on illegal immigration. 4 million people waiting to get here legally. Pathways to citizenship...good stuff. Romney has the right stuff.
OBAMA GETS WOMAN'S NAME WRONG!!!! GAME OVER!!!
***
Back after picking up the girls.
9:08 pm - Who denied enhanced security in Benghazi? KABOOM!!!
Obama platitudinous... stuttering. Not answering question.
Obama hitting Romney on press release making political points.... when it comes to our national security, I mean what I say. Completely rambling... minutes into answer and still hasn't answered the question. We are going to find out what happened and hold people accountable.
Romney: more troubling... the day following the assassination of an ambassador... President flies to Las Vegas for fundraiser. Actions taken by President have symbolic importance. Calls into question entire set of President's policies in Middle East. Strategy unraveling...
***
Crowley: Secretary of State... does the buck stop with you or with Hillary? Obama: I'm responsible... I said it was an act of terror... I greeted the caskets... it's offensive to say we'd play politics with this. Strong, even though it's a lie.
Crowley correcting Romney, helping Obama... Romney should have talked and not turned to ask Obama a question... not a good moment for Romney. Still winning, but could have hammered this better.
***
9:18 pm - Question about assault weapons. Will Romney go to Fast and Furious... please please please.
Romney: two parent families a must to help change culture of violence... please please please go to FnF.
HE'S THERE!!!!
9:21 pm - Not supremely clear on FnF, but maybe there are some people out there who don't know about it and now will know about it.
Candy Crowley helping Obama openly.
Obama trying to get his last talking points in about education... gains in math and science... really? Romney says hiring more teachers doesn't grow economy...
***
Question: outsourcing? Really that's the best we can do?
Romney: we have made it less attractive to go off shore through policy. We will make it more attractive to start manufacturing companies for entrepreneurs... not trickle down government. We have to be tough on China. On Day One I will label China a currency manipulator... I will put tariffs where necessary. Don't forget... what's key to bringing back jobs, make America most attractive place to do business. Canada's tax rate is 15% for corporations, ours is 35%. Where you going to start a business? Regulations are crushing small business. Obamacare deterrent to hiring people. Good answer... constantly focusing on jobs jobs jobs.
If I drank every time Romney said "I know what it takes" I'd be drunk...
Obama being aggressive... Romney wants to give tax breaks for outsourcing.
Obama has been stronger in the last 30 minutes of the debate... but he's a jerk. Romney invested in companies that were "pioneers in outsourcing."
***
Question from Candy Crowley: how would we get Apple to build Iphones here?
Obama: government investment created Apple?
Romney: government does not create jobs.
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Last question: what is the biggest perception that people have about you as a candidate and as a man?
Romney is a guy who wants to help 100% of people. It comes from my belief in God. I served as a missionary and a pastor. I've sat across the table from people who've lost their jobs.... we don't have to settle for what we're going through. We don't have to settle for gasoline at $4.00. We don't have to settle for 23 million struggling to find a good job. We don't have to settle... good answer.
Obama: I don't believe that government creates jobs. Now Obama is trying to say he believes in self-reliance. I believe that everybody deserves a fair shake. Now hitting Romney on 47%... pretty strong. I hope this isn't the last impression....
***
On the whole, I think Romney won big in the first half, and Obama came back and may have salvaged a little bit at the end.
That's it... let's see what the pundits say.
My prediction... the media will spin this as a comeback for the President Obama.
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