"It profits me but little that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life."

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Deconstructing the Obamacare Numbers

HHS has released its end of November numbers for "enrollments" in Obamacare.   Let's see if we can deconstruct them a little:

  • The release says that a total of 39.1 million people accessed either the state or federal online insurance marketplaces.  
  • Of those, only approximately 3.7 million applied for coverage (again, in either the state or federal marketplaces).   So, less than 10% of those who went to the website actually applied for coverage.
  • Of those, only 2.3 million were deemed "eligible."
  • Of those, only 365,000 have actually "selected" a plan.   So now we're down below 1% of the people who went to the Obamacare websites have actually selected a plan.
  • Of those, only 137,000 did so through the federal exchange, the vaunted healthcare.gov website that Obama and the HHS and Kathleen Sibelius were actually responsible for.  
  • Of those, the best estimates of insurance professionals suggest that fewer than 15% and as little as 5% have actually paid their premiums, which, of course, they have to pay by next week in order to have coverage starting January 1.  If they don't, their "enrollments" are very likely going to be null and void.
  • So, for all of the money we've spent and disruption that Obamacare has caused, the federal government's program may have successfully gotten healthcare to less than 10,000 Americans.   At a cost of $600 million for the website, and as many as 5,000,000 people so far who have lost their insurance.
Can someone explain why these people are so happy?

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