Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Pretty Pathetic Poll

That's what PPP stands for apparently.   In today's poll of Ohio voters, they have Obama up five in a D+9 poll.   Over at Hot Air they capture the absurdity nicely:

Oh, let’s just skip the rest of the preliminaries and go right to the sample.  The D/R/I on this poll is a ridiculous 45/36/19 that assumes Democrats will add six points to their 2008 turnout while independents largely stay home.  In 2008, recall, the exit polls showed the electorate at 39/31/30, and the 2010 midterm put it at 36/37/28.  Has anyone produced any evidence of such a wave of Democratic enthusiasm?  Even the CBS/NYT/Q-poll today showed GOP enthusiasm leading by 14 in Ohio, 57/43.

Democrats will not turn out in greater numbers in Ohio in 2012 than they did in 2008 during the wave of Obamamania.   Independents are a growing segment of the electorate, not a shrinking segment.   Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats.   Every responsible poll should reflect these basic facts.   If they don't, they're worthless.  

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